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Expected Returns, Yield Spreads, and Asset Pricing Tests

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  • Murillo Campello
  • Long Chen
  • Lu Zhang

Abstract

We use yield spreads to construct ex-ante returns on corporate securities, and then use the ex-ante returns in asset pricing assets. Differently from the standard approach, our tests do not use ex-post average returns as a proxy for expected returns. We find that the market beta plays a much more important role in the cross-section of expected returns than previously reported. The expected value premium is significantly positive and countercyclical. We find no evidence of ex-ante positive momentum profits.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11323.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Publication status: published as Murillo Campello & Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1297-1338, May.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11323

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Cited by:
  1. Anginer, Deniz & Yildizhan, Celim, 2009. "Is there a Distress Risk Anomaly? Pricing of Systematic Default Risk in the Cross Section of Equity Returns," MPRA Paper 53885, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Apr 2013.
  2. Tobias Schlueter & Soenke Sievers, 2014. "Determinants of market beta: the impacts of firm-specific accounting figures and market conditions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 535-570, April.
  3. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2009. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
  4. Gene Amromin & Steven Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Long Chen & Ralitsa Petkova & Lu Zhang, 2006. "The Expected Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 12183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2014. "The intertemporal risk-return relation: A bivariate model approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 158-181.
  7. Jäckel, Christoph, 2013. "Model uncertainty and expected return proxies," MPRA Paper 51978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2013. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," SAFE Working Paper Series 36, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  9. Long Chen & Hui Guo & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Equity market volatility and expected risk premium," Working Papers 2006-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Florian Hett & Alexander Schmidt, 2013. "Bank Bailouts and Market Discipline: How Bailout Expectations Changed During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1305, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 01 Aug 2013.
  11. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  12. Füss, Roland & Gehrig, Thomas & Rindler, Philipp B, 2011. "Scattered Trust - Did the 2007-08 financial crisis change risk perceptions?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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