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A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets

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Author Info
Harrison Hong
Jeremy C. Stein

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Abstract

We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are not" sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as would be the case if the central" tendency was constant. However, since longer-maturity bond prices incorporate information" about the central tendency, longer-maturity bond yields can be used to predict future short-term" rate movements. We develop a two-factor model of the term-structure which implies that a" linear combination of any two rates can be used as a proxy for the central tendency. Based on" this central-tendency proxy, we estimate a model of the one-month rate which performs better" than models which assume the central tendency to be constant.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6324.

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Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6324

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Palomino, F. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2005. "Stock price reactions to short-lived public information : the case of betting odds," Discussion Paper 16, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Patricia Chelley-steeley & Antonios Siganos, 2004. "Momentum profits and macroeconomic factors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 433-436, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2002. "An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies," Research Paper Series 84, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2001. "Stock Market Driven Acquisitions," NBER Working Papers 8439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & Rene M. Stulz, 2002. "Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows: Pushed or Pulled?," NBER Working Papers 9000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lin Peng & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Investor Attention: Overconfidence and Category Learning," NBER Working Papers 11400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mark Bayless & Kelly Price & Margaret Monroe Smoller, 2005. "Firm characteristics, market conditions, and the pattern of performance after seasoned equity offers," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 611-622, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2003. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception," CEPR Discussion Papers 3725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2000. "Market Efficiency in an Irrational World," NBER Working Papers 7489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2000. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," NBER Working Papers 7567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. John S. Ying & Joel S. Sternberg, 2005. "The Impact of Serial Correlation on Option Prices in a Non- Frictionless Environment: An Alternative Explanation for Volatility Skew," Working Papers 05-12, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beleifs (June 2003), with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas," UCLA Economics Online Papers 265, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Tarun Chordia & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2000. "Order Imbalance and Individual Stock Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1080, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Polk, Christopher & Sapienza, Paola, 2003. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 1999. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 7220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Günter Franke & Martin Weber, 2001. "Heterogeneity of Investors and Asset Pricing in a Risk-Value World," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-08, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Nijman, T. & Swinkels, L. & Verbeek, M., 2002. "Do countries or industries explain momentum in Europe?," Discussion Paper 9, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Maher Kooli & Jean-Marc Suret, 2001. "The Aftermarket Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-52, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  20. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua Pollet, 2005. "Investor Inattention, Firm Reaction, and Friday Earnings Announcements," NBER Working Papers 11683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," NBER Working Papers 7159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Michael Kaestner, 2005. "Anomalous Price Behavior Following Earnings Surprises: Does Representativeness Cause Overreaction?," Finance 0505018, EconWPA, revised 03 Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Minardi, A., 2001. "Preços Passados prevendo Desempenho de Ações Brasileiras," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_43, Finance Lab, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
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