Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Theory of Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, and Security Market Under- and Over-reactions

Contents:

Author Info

  • KENT D. DANIEL

    (Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management)

  • David Hirshleifer

    (Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University, Department of Finance)

  • AVANIDHAR SUBRAHMANYAM

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

We propose a theory based on investor overconfidence and biased self- attribution to explain several of the securities returns patterns that seem anomalous from the perspective of efficient markets with rational investors. The theory is based on two premises derived from evidence in psychological studies. The first is that individuals are overconfident about their ability to evaluate securities, in the sense that they overestimate the precision of their private information signals. The second is that investors' confidence changes in a biased fashion as a function of their decision outcomes. The first premise implies overreaction to private information arrival and underreaction to public information arrival. This is consistent with (1) post-corporate event and post-earnings announcement stock price 'drift', (2) negative long- lag autocorrelations (long-run 'overreaction'), and (3) excess volatility of asset prices. Adding the second premise leads to (4) positive short-lag autocorrelations ('momentum'), and (5) short-run post-earnings announcement 'drift,' and negative correlation between future stock returns and long-term measures of past accounting performance. The model also offers several untested empirical implications and implications for corporate financial policy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/fin/papers/0412/0412006.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0412006.

as in new window
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 04 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0412006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 45. PDF
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Overconfidence; Market Efficiency; Investor Psychology; Asset Pricing;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cooper, Arnold C. & Woo, Carolyn Y. & Dunkelberg, William C., 1988. "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-108.
  2. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kaul, Gautam & Nimalendran, M., 1990. "Price reversals *1: Bid-ask errors or market overreaction?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 67-93.
  5. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
  6. Marco Pagano & Fabio Panetta & Luigi Zingales, 1995. "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
  8. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-., 1989. "When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction?," Working papers 3008-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  10. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Korajczyk, Robert A & Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1991. "The Effect of Information Releases on the Pricing and Timing of Equity Issues," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 685-708.
  12. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
  13. Roni Michaely & Richard H. Thaler & Kent Womack, 1994. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," NBER Working Papers 4778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Paul Gompers & Josh Lerner, 1998. "Venture Capital Distributions: Short-Run and Long-Run Reactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2161-2183, December.
  15. Rozeff, Michael S & Zaman, Mir A, 1988. "Market Efficiency and Insider Trading: New Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 25-44, January.
  16. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June.
  17. Bjerring, James H & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1983. " Stock Prices and Financial Analysts' Recommendations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 187-204, March.
  18. Abarbanell, Jeffery S., 1991. "Do analysts' earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-165, June.
  19. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
  20. Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April.
  21. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
  22. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
  23. Kyle, Albert & Campbell, John, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Scholarly Articles 3208217, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. Baumann, Andrea O. & Deber, Raisa B. & Thompson, Gail G., 1991. "Overconfidence among physicians and nurses: The 'micro-certainty, macro-uncertainty' phenomenon," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 167-174, January.
  25. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  26. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  28. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Ivo Welch & Siew Hong Teoh & T.J. Wong, 1995. "Earnings Management and The Post-Issue Underperformance in Seasoned Equity Offerings," Finance 9-95., University of California at Los Angeles.
  30. Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1990. " Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1019-43, September.
  31. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  32. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0412006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.