Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns
AbstractThis paper investigates the relation between returns on stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts in order to evaluate potential explanations for the pervasive yet anomalous evidence of positive, short-horizon portfolio autocorrelations. Using a simple theoretical framework, we generate empirical implications for both microstructure and behavioral models. These implications are then tested using futures data on 24 contracts across 15 countries. The major findings are (i) return autocorrelations of indices tend to be positive even though their corresponding futures contracts have autocorrelations close to zero, (ii) these autocorrelation differences between spot and futures markets are maintained even under conditions favorable for spot-futures arbitrage, and (iii) these autocorrelation differences are most prevalent during low volume periods. These results point us towards a market microstructure-based explanation for short-horizon autocorrelations and away from explanations based on current popular behavioral models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 99-040.
Date of creation: Nov 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
Phone: (212) 998-0100
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002.
"Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
- Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2001. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," NBER Working Papers 8312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hawawini, Gabriel A., 1980. "Intertemporal Cross-Dependence in Securities Daily Returns and the Short-Run Intervaling Effect on Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 139-149, March.
- Mech, Timothy S., 1993. "Portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 307-344, December.
- Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, .
"An Econometric Analysis of Nonsyschronous-Trading,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
19-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Brennan, Michael J & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 1993. "Investment Analysis and the Adjustment of Stock Prices to Common Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 799-824.
- Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, .
"Do Industries Explain Momentum?,"
CRSP working papers
352, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. " Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-18, March.
- Holden, Craig W & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. " Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 247-70, March.
- KENT D. DANIEL & David Hirshleifer & AVANIDHAR SUBRAHMANYAM, 2004. "A Theory of Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, and Security Market Under- and Over-reactions," Finance 0412006, EconWPA.
- Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-52.
- Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1998. "An Anatomy of Trading Strategies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 489-519.
- Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1989. "Mean Reversion in Short-Horizon Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 225-40.
- Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew P & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 539-73.
- A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
- Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-56.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik & Hertzel, Michael G, 1993. "Return Autocorrelations around Nontrading Days," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 155-89.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.