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Margin requirements, positive feedback trading, and stock return autocorrelations: the case of Japan

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  • Toshiaki Watanabe
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    Abstract

    This article examines the pattern of autocorrelation of daily stock index returns in the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) by estimating the two variants of the EGARCH model by Nelson (1991). We confirm the findings by Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) and Koutmos (1997) that stock returns exhibit positive autocorrelation when volatility is low but they exhibit negative autocorrelation when volatility is rather high, and that stock returns are more negatively autocorrelated after price declines than after price rises. Evidence is also found that an increase in margin requirements makes stock returns more positively autocorrelated, which contrasts with Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) who were unable to detect any effect of margin requirements on the autocorrelation of returns in the US stock market.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100110090163
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 395-403

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:6:p:395-403

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    Cited by:
    1. Chen, Carl R. & Su, Yuli & Huang, Ying, 2008. "Hourly index return autocorrelation and conditional volatility in an EAR-GJR-GARCH model with generalized error distribution," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 789-798, September.
    2. Salm, Christian A. & Schuppli, Michael, 2010. "Positive feedback trading in stock index futures: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 313-322, December.
    3. Michael Schuppli & Martin T. Bohl, 2009. "Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China’s A-Share Markets?," CQE Working Papers 0909, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Schuppli, Michael & Bohl, Martin T., 2010. "Do foreign institutional investors destabilize China's A-share markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 36-50, February.
    5. Henryk Gurgul & Pawel Majdosz, 2006. "The impact of institutional investors on risk and stock return autocorrelation in the context of the polish pension reform," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 2, pages 5-30.

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