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Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks

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Author Info
Guillermo Llorente
Roni Michaely
Gideon Saar
Jiang Wang

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Abstract

We examine the dynamic relation between return and volume of individual stocks. Using a simple model in which investors trade to share risk or speculate on private information, we show that returns generated by risk-sharing trades tend to reverse themselves, while returns generated by speculative trades tend to continue themselves. We test this theoretical prediction by analyzing the relation between daily volume and first-order return autocorrelation for individual stocks listed on the NYSE and AMEX. We find that the cross-sectional variation in the relation between volume and return autocorrelation is related to the extent of informed trading in a manner consistent with the theoretical prediction. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 15 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1005-1047
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:15:y:2002:i:4:p:1005-1047

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  1. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-040, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael R. King & Maksym Padalko, 2005. "Pre-Bid Run-Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big Is the Problem?," Working Papers 05-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bartosz Gebka, 2005. "Dynamic volume--return relationship: evidence from an emerging capital market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1019-1029, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Joel Hasbrouck, 1999. "Trading Fast and Slow: Security Market Events in Real Time," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-012, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  5. Art A. Durnev & Amrita S. Nain, 2004. "The Unanticipated Effects of Insider Trading Regulation," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-695, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bardong, Florian & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Informed Trading, Information Asymmetry and Pricing of Information Risk: Empirical Evidence from the NYSE," MPRA Paper 13586, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2007. "Market sidedness: insights into motives for trade initiation," Staff Reports 292, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ghulam Sarwar, 2004. "The informational role of option trading volume in the S&P 500 futures options markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(16), pages 1197-1210, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Brian M. Lucey, 2005. "Speculation or hedging in the Irish stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 9-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 7214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2006. "Two-sided markets and intertemporal trade clustering: insights into trading motives," Staff Reports 246, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan Mingelgrin, . "The High Volume Return Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F, 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2007. "Common Patterns in Commonality in Returns, Liquidity, and Turnover around the World," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Nam, Jouahn & Wang, Jun & Zhang, Ge, 2004. "Strategic trading against retail investors with disposition effects," Working Papers 2004-11, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  16. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2007. "Dynamic trading and asset prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," IESE Research Papers D/716, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2006. "Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets," MPRA Paper 14018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
  18. Rani Hoitash & Murugappa (Murgie) Krishnan, 2008. "Herding, momentum and investor over-reaction," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 25-47, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Eric Ghysels & João Pereira, 2003. "On Portfolio Choice, Liquidity, and Short Selling: A Nonparametric Investigation," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-27, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  20. Cetin Ciner, 2006. "Hedging or speculation in derivative markets: the case of energy futures contracts," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 189-192, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2007. "Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return Comovements: Evidence from Cross-Listed Stocks," Working Paper Series 2006-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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