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A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market

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  • Chan, Kalok
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    Abstract

    The intraday lead-lag relation between returns of the Major Market cash index and returns of the Major Market Index futures and S&P 500 futures is investigated. Empirical results show strong evidence that the futures leads the cash index and weak evidence that the cash index leads the futures. The asymmetric lead-lag relation holds between the futures and all component stocks, including those that trade in almost every five-minute interval. Evidence indicates that when more stocks move together (market-wide information) the futures leads the cash index to a greater degree. This suggests that the futures market is the main source of market-wide information. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 123-52

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:5:y:1992:i:1:p:123-52

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    Cited by:
    1. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1795-1802.
    2. Ah-Boon Sim & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2001. "Optimal hedge ratios and alternative hedging strategies in the presence of cointegrated time-varying risks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 269-283.
    3. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-040, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    4. Gerard L. Gannon, 2009. "Dispersion of Information or Market Behaviour: General Public Trading in S&P500 Index Futures," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2009_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    5. Асатуров К.Г. & Теплова Т.В., 2014. "Построение Коэффициентов Хеджирования Для Высоколиквидных Акций Российского Рынка На Основе Моделей Класс�," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 50(1), pages 37-54, янваÑ.
    6. Hodgson, Allan & Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2006. "Futures trading volume as a determinant of prices in different momentum phases," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 68-85.
    7. Yi-Tsung Lee & Wei-Shao Wu & Yun Yang, 2013. "Informed Futures Trading and Price Discovery: Evidence from Taiwan Futures and Stock Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 219-242, September.
    8. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 7214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
    10. P., Srinivasan, 2011. "Price Discovery and Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Commodity Market," MPRA Paper 47412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2014. "Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 247-253.
    12. Ángel Pardo & Francisco Climent, 2000. "Relaciones temporales entre el contrato de futuro sobre IBEX-35 y su activo subyacente," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(1), pages 219-236, January.
    13. Wen-Hsiu Kuo & Shih-Ju Chan, 2006. "The Impact of Introduction of QFIIs Trading on the Lead and Volatility Behavior: Evidence for Taiwan Index Futures Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 25-49.
    14. D Brookfield & A Azizan, 2006. "Contagion and the Role of Market Development: the Case of the Malaysian Futures Market during the East Asian Crisis of 1997," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, September.
    15. Rafiqul Bhuyan, 2002. "Information, Alternative Markets, and Security Price Processes: A Survey of Literature," Finance 0211002, EconWPA.
    16. Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2013. "Stochastic dominance relationships between stock and stock index futures markets: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 552-559.
    17. Säfvenblad, Patrik, 1997. "Lead-Lag Effects When Prices Reveal Cross-Security Information," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 189, Stockholm School of Economics.
    18. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2014. "Catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-122.
    19. Dimitris Kenourgios, 2005. "Price Discovery In The Athens Derivatives Exchange: Evidence For The Ftse/Ase-20 Futures Market," Finance 0512014, EconWPA.
    20. Diogo de Prince & Alexandre Monte, 2013. "What market (spot or future) reflects news first? An analysis in the frequency domain for Brazilian stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1780-1787.
    21. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Chowdhury, Mustafa & Martikainen, Teppo, 1996. "Common volatility in major stock index futures markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 623-630, December.
    22. Ming-Shiun Pan & L. Hsueh, 1998. "Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility between the U.S. and Japan: Evidence from the Stock Index Futures Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 211-225, November.
    23. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas & Floros, Christos, 2014. "Dynamic Spillover Effects in Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 53876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Christopher Chung & Bryan Campbell & Scott Hendry, 2007. "Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets," Working Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.

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