What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?
AbstractMultihorizon temporal relationships between stock returns are complex due to confounding sources of return premia, microstructure effects, and changes in the relationship over various horizons. We find the relation to be further complicated by the sign and consistency of the past return that also varies, somewhat sensibly, with the season and the tax environment. Accounting for these additional effects using a parsimonious technical trading rule generates surprisingly large abnormal returns, despite controlling for microstructure effects, transaction costs, and date-snooping biases. The documented variation in profits across stock characteristics, season, and tax environment appears inconsistent with existing theory, but may point to future explanations for the relation between past and expected returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm259.
Date of creation: 25 Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Mark Grinblatt & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," NBER Working Papers 8744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Guo, Hui, 2006.
"Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
- Hui Guo, 2005. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Working Papers 2002-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Mark Grinblatt & Bing Han, 2002.
"The Disposition Effect and Momentum,"
NBER Working Papers
8734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2003. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," Working Paper Series 2004-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Bing NMI1 Han & Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm239, Yale School of Management.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.