What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?
AbstractMultihorizon temporal relationships between stock returns are complex due to confounding sources of return premia, microstructure effects, and changes in the relationship over various horizons. We find the relation to be further complicated by the sign and consistency of the past return that also varies, somewhat sensibly, with the season and the tax environment. Accounting for these additional effects using a parsimonious technical trading rule generates surprisingly large abnormal returns, despite controlling for microstructure effects, transaction costs, and date-snooping biases. The documented variation in profits across stock characteristics, season, and tax environment appears inconsistent with existing theory, but may point to future explanations for the relation between past and expected returns.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm259.
Date of creation: 25 Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Mark Grinblatt & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," NBER Working Papers 8744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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