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Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect

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Author Info
 Boudoukh, Jacob
Richardson, Matthew
Whitelaw, Robert F
Abstract

The authors investigate the cross-sectional relation between industry-sorted stock returns and expected inflation, and they find that this relation is linked to cyclical movements in industry output. Stock returns of noncyclical industries tend to covary positively with expected inflation, while the reverse holds for cyclical industries. From a theoretical perspective, the authors describe a model that captures both (1) the cross-sectional variation in these relations across industries and (2) the negative and positive relation between stock returns and inflation at short and long horizons, respectively. The model is developed in an economic environment in which the spirit of the Fisher model is preserved. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 49 (1994)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1595-1615
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:5:p:1595-1615

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  1. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Roll, Richard & Xia, Yihong, 2004. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 04-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
  2. Willem Thorbecke, 2002. "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 255-268, Spring. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bhagwan Chowdhry & Richard Roll & Yihong Xia, 2005. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 255-276, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-206, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jakob B. Madsen, 2004. "Pitfalls in Estimates of Relationship between Share Returns and Inflation," FRU Working Papers 2004/07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
  7. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Stanley C. W. Salvary, 2005. "Informedness Of Economic Agents And The Quantity Theory Of Money," Macroeconomics 0512005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Owen Lamont, 1999. "Economic Tracking Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 7055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "L'identité de Fisher et l'interaction entre l'inflation et la rentabilité des actions: l'importance des régimes sous-jacents aux marchés boursiers," BCL working papers cahier_etude_18, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christian Pedersen & Stephen Satchell, 2003. "Can NN-algorithms and macroeconomic data improve OLS industry returns forecasts?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 273-289, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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