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The Disposition Effect and Momentum

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  • Grinblatt, Mark

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Han, Bing

    (Ohio State U)

Abstract

The tendency of some investors to hold on to their losing stocks creates a spread between a stock's fundamental value and its equilibrium price, as well as price underreaction to information. Spread convergence, arising from the random evolution of fundamental values and updating of reference prices, generates predictable equilibrium prices that will be interpreted as possessing momentum. Cross-sectional empirical tests are consistent with the model. A variable proxying for aggregate unrealized capital gains appears to be the key variable that generates the profitability of a momentum strategy. Past returns have no predictability for the cross-section of returns once this variable is controlled for.

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Paper provided by Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2004-3.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2004-3

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Cited by:
  1. Seow Ong & Poh Neo & Yong Tu, 2008. "Foreclosure Sales: The Effects of Price Expectations, Volatility and Equity Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 265-287, April.
  2. Mihir A. Desai & James R. Hines Jr., 2002. "Expectations and Expatriations: Tracing the Causes and Consequences of Corporate Inversions," NBER Working Papers 9057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Luis Muga & Rafael SantamarĂ­a, 2009. "Momentum, market states and investor behavior," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 105-130, September.
  4. Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
  5. Newton Da Costa & Carlos Mineto & Sergio Da Silva, 2008. "Disposition effect and gender," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 411-416.
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
  8. Kaustia, Markku, 2004. "Market-wide impact of the disposition effect: evidence from IPO trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 207-235, February.
  9. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2002. "Momentum and Turnover: Evidence from the German Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3353, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Du, Ding, 2008. "The 52-week high and momentum investing in international stock indexes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 61-77, February.
  11. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "Is the market held by institutional investors? The disposition effect revisited," Discussion Papers 338, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  12. Wang, Daxue, 2008. "Are anomalies still anomalous? An examination of momentum strategies in four financial markets," IESE Research Papers D/775, IESE Business School.

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