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Price Momentum In Stocks: Insights From Victorian Age Data

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  • Benjamin Chabot
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Ravi Jagannathan

Abstract

We find that price momentum in stocks was a pervasive phenomenon during the Victorian age (1866-1907) as well. Momentum strategy profits have little systematic risk even at business cycle frequencies; disappear periodically only to reappear later; exhibit long run reversal; and are higher following up markets, suggesting limited availability of arbitrage capital relative to opportunities during those times. Since there were no capital gains taxes during the Victorian age, the long run reversal of momentum profits must have a fundamental component, that is unrelated to tax based trading, identified by Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004) using CRSP era data.

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  • Benjamin Chabot & Eric Ghysels & Ravi Jagannathan, 2008. "Price Momentum In Stocks: Insights From Victorian Age Data," NBER Working Papers 14500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14500
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    6. Renata Guobužaitė & Deimantė Teresienė, 2021. "Can Economic Factors Improve Momentum Trading Strategies? The Case of Managed Futures during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, May.
    7. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Raza, Muhammad Wajid, 2020. "The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 177-199.
    8. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Chan, Raymond H. & Clark, Ephraim & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "On the Third Order Stochastic Dominance for Risk-Averse and Risk-Seeking Investors with Analysis of their Traditional and Internet Stocks," MPRA Paper 75002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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