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Why Stocks May Disappoint

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Author Info
Andrew Ang
Geert Bekaert
Jun Liu

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Abstract

Recently much progress has been made in developing optimal portfolio choice models accomodating time-varying opportunity sets, but unless investors are unreasonably risk averse, optimal holdings include unreasonably large equity positions. One reason is that most studies assume investors behave as expected utility maximizers with power utility. In this article, we provide a formal treatment of both static and dynamic portfolio choice using the Disappointment Aversion preferences of Gul (1991). While different from the Kahneman-Tversky (1979) loss aversion utility, these preferences imply asymmetric aversion to gains versus losses and are consistent with the tendency of some people to like lottery-type gambles but dislike stock in-vestments. By calibrating a number of data generating processes to actual US data on stock and bond returns, we find very reasonable portfolios for moderately disappointment averse investors with utility functions exhibiting low curvature. Disappointment aversion preferences affect intertemporal hedging demands and the state dependence of asset allocation in such a way as to not be replicable by standard expected utility functions with higher curvature. Furthermore, it is easy to reconcile the large equity premium observed in the data with disappointment aversion utility of low curvature and reasonable disappointment aversion.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7783.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7783

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  26. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 1999. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 7220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Ågren, Martin, 2005. "Myopic Loss Aversion, the Equity Premium Puzzle, and GARCH," Working Paper Series 2005:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan Storud, 2004. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alexandros Kostakis, 2007. "Mind Coskewness: A Performance Measure for Prudent, Long-Term Investors," Discussion Papers 07/07, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Does aggregate relative risk aversion change countercyclically over time? evidence from the stock market," Working Papers 2006-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2002. "Bubbles in experimental asset markets: Irrational exuberance no more," Working Paper 2002-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Dillenberger, 2008. "Preferences for One-Shot Resolution of Uncertainty and Allais-Type Behavior," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-036, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mark Grinblatt & Bing Han, 2002. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," NBER Working Papers 8734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Anderson, Anders E. S., 2004. "One for the Gain, Three for the Loss," SIFR Research Report Series 20, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Erdem Basci & Mehmet Fatih Ekinci, 2004. "Bond Premium in Turkey," Macroeconomics 0409007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Shosh Shahrabani & Uri Benzion & Tal Shavit, 2008. "WTP and WTA in competitive and non-competitive environments," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 3, pages 153-161, February. [Downloadable!]
  11. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2003. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Erdem Basci, 2002. "Bond Premium in Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 0207, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dillenberger, David, 2008. "Preferences for One-Shot Resolution of Uncertainty and Allais-Type Behavior," MPRA Paper 8342, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Paul Ehling, 2004. "Consumption, Portfolio Policies and Dynamic Equilibrium in the Presence of Preference for Ownership," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 311, Econometric Society.
  16. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside Risk," NBER Working Papers 11824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Individual Preferences, Monetary Gambles, and Stock Market Participation: A Case for Narrow Framing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1069-1090, September. [Downloadable!]
  18. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2006. "The Loss Aversion / Narrow Framing Approach to the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 12378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross Section of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 10996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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