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International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations

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Author Info
Andrew Ang
Geert Bekaert

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Abstract

It is widely believed that correlations between international equity markets tend to increase in highly volatile bear markets. This has led some to doubt the benefits of international diversification. This article solves the dynamic portfolio choice problem of a US investor faced with a time-varying investment opportunity set which may be characterized by correlations and volatilities that increase in bad times. We model the state dependance of US, UK, and German equity returns using a regime-switching model and find evidence for the existence of a high volatility regime, in which returns are more highly correlated and have lower means. Solving the dynamic asset allocation problem for a CCRA investor, we show international diversification is still valuable with regime changes. Currency hedging imparts further benefit. The costs of ignoring the regimes are small for moderate levels of risk aversion, and the intertemporal hedging demands induced by time-varying correlations are negligible.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7056.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7056

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C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation

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  1. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Comovements in International Stock Markets," ICER Working Papers 3-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giorgio Santis & Bruno Gerard & Pierre Hillion, 1999. "International Portfolio Management, Currency Risk and the Euro," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1095, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  3. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 7377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Rockinger, M. & Jondeau, E., 2001. "Conditional Dependency of Financial Series: An Application of Copulas," Documents de Travail 82, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gregory R. Duffee, 2001. "Asymmetric cross-sectional dispersion in stock returns: evidence and implications," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  6. Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Documents de Travail 73, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Nilsson, Birger, 2002. "Financial Liberalization and the Changing Characteristics of Nordic Stock Returns," Working Papers 2002:4, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Longin, François & Solnik, Bruno H, 2000. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2000. "Are Correlations of Stock Returns Justified by Subsequent Changes in National Outputs?," Working Papers 00-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Kevin Sheppard & Robert F. Engle & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2003. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns," Working Paper Series 204, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jun Liu & Francis Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2001. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1001, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  13. François, LONGIN & Bruno, SOLNIK, 1998. "Correlation Structure of International Equity Markets During Extremely Volatile Periods," Les Cahiers de Recherche 646, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
  14. LONGIN, François & SOLNIK, Bruno, 2000. "Extreme correlation of international equity markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 705, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
  15. Graflund, Andreas & Nilsson, Birger, 2002. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection: The Relevance of Switching Regimes and Investment Horizon," Working Papers 2002:8, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  16. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
  17. Mark J. Holmes & Maghrebi Nabil, 2002. "Non-Linearities, Regime Switching and the Relationship Between Asian Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets ," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 121-139, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Anthony W. Lynch, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Equity Characteristics: Characterizing the Hedging Demands Induced by Return Predictability," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-073, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  19. Zhenyu Wang & Asani Sarkar & Kai Li, 1999. "Assessing the impact of short-sale constraints on the gains from international diversification," Staff Reports 89, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  20. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Uppal, Raman, 2002. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Colm Kearney & Valerio Poti, 2005. "Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets," Finance 0507008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Stephen E. Satchell & Shaun A. Bond, 2004. "Asymmetry, Loss Aversion and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 160, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  24. Colm Kearney & Valerio Poti, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Market Risk and Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp015, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  25. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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