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Spillover effect of US monetary policy to ASEAN stock markets: Evidence from Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand

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  • Yang, Lu
  • Hamori, Shigeyuki

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the spillover effect from US monetary policy to selected ASEAN stock markets by employing Markov-switching models. Based on univariate Markov-switching models, we confirm the existence of two distinct regimes for both US monetary policy and the stock markets. By applying multivariate Markov-switching models, we find that US interest rates have a negative effect on the selected ASEAN stock markets during economic expansion periods. However, this kind of effect disappears during economic crisis periods. Our empirical results indicate that the spillover effect from US monetary policy influences the ASEAN stock markets only during the tranquil period. These results have important implications for the transmission mechanisms of asset price, such as the credit channel, trade channel, and balance sheet channel.

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  • Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Spillover effect of US monetary policy to ASEAN stock markets: Evidence from Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:26:y:2014:i:c:p:145-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.12.003
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    3. Ahmad Maulin Naufa & Mamduh M. Hanafi & I Wayan Nuka Lantara, 2021. "Foreign Ownership, Stock Performance-Risk, And Macroeconomic Factors In Asean Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(1), pages 151-168, March.
    4. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Interdependence between monetary policy and asset prices in ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Impossible Trinity and Financial Markets – An Examination of Inflation Volatility Spillovers," MPRA Paper 77923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    6. Benson, Karen & Faff, Robert & Smith, Tom, 2015. "Injecting liquidity into liquidity research," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 533-540.
    7. , & Hwa, Yen Siew & Chua, Soo Y. & Hooi, Lean Hooi, 2015. "Do Indian Economic Activities Impact ASEAN-5 Stock Markets?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 49(2), pages 61-76.
    8. Sun, Xinxin & Lu, Xinsheng & Yue, Gongzheng & Li, Jianfeng, 2017. "Cross-correlations between the US monetary policy, US dollar index and crude oil market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 326-344.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-switching models; Spillover effect; Excess liquidity; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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