IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crp/wpaper/103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Bagliano

    (University of Turin and CeRP)

  • Claudio Morana

    (Università del Piemonte Orientale and CeRP)

Abstract

The paper aims at assessing the mechanics of the Great Recession, considering both its domestic propagation within the US, as well as its spillovers to advanced and emerging economies. A total of 50 countries has been investigated by means of a large-scale open economy macroeconometric model, providing an accurate assessment of the international macro/finance interface over the whole 1980-2009 period. It is found that a boom-bust credit cycle interpretation of the crisis is consistent with the empirical evidence. Moreover, concerning the real effects of the crisis within the US, stronger evidence of an asset prices channel, rather than a liquidity channel, has been detected. The results also support the effectiveness of the expansionary fiscal/monetary policy mix implemented by the Fed and the US government. Concerning the spillovers to the world economy, it is found that while the financial shock has spilled over to foreign countries through US housing and stock price dynamics, as well as excess liquidity creation, the trade channel likely is the key transmission mechanism of the real shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," CeRP Working Papers 103, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    • Handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cerp.carloalberto.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/wp_103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chirinko, Robert S. & Haan, Leo de & Sterken, Elmer, 2004. "Asset Price Shocks, Real Expenditures, and Financial Structure:A Multi-Country Analysis," CCSO Working Papers 200411, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    5. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    6. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
    7. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    8. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 119-182.
    9. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    12. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 432-444, March.
    13. Nippani, Srinivas & Smith, Stanley D., 2010. "The increasing default risk of US Treasury securities due to the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2472-2480, October.
    14. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    15. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    17. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    18. Claudio Borio, 2008. "The financial turmoil of 2007-?: a preliminary assessment and some policy considerations," BIS Working Papers 251, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
    20. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June.
    21. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    23. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Econometric Analysis of High Dimensional VARs Featuring a Dominant Unit," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5-6), pages 592-649, August.
    24. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2010. "Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3081, CESifo.
    25. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    27. Robert J Gordon, 2005. "What Caused the Decline in US Business Cycle Volatility?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    28. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    29. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    31. Morana, Claudio, 2006. "A small scale macroeconometric model for the Euro-12 area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 391-426, May.
    32. Peter Temin, 2010. "The Great Recession and the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 15645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. A. Ronald Gallant, 1984. "The Fourier Flexible Form," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(2), pages 204-208.
    34. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Factor vector autoregressive estimation: a new approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 15-23, June.
    35. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    36. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    37. Barro, Robert J. & Ursúa, José F., 2017. "Stock-market crashes and depressions," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 384-398.
    38. Gauger, Jean & Snyder, Tricia Coxwell, 2003. "Residential Fixed Investment and the Macroeconomy: Has Deregulation Altered Key Relationships?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 335-354, November.
    39. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    40. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 119-182.
    41. Ross Levine, 2010. "An Autopsy of the U.S. Financial System," NBER Working Papers 15956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
    43. Richard S. Grossman & Christopher M. Meissner, 2010. "International aspects of the Great Depression and the crisis of 2007: similarities, differences, and lessons," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 318-338, Autumn.
    44. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
    45. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    46. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    47. Alm, James & Follain, James R., 1984. "Alternative Mortgage Instruments, the Tilt Problem, and Consumer Welfare," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 113-126, March.
    48. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
    49. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    50. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2008/169, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Michael D. Bordo & Harold James, 2009. "The Great Depression Analogy," NBER Working Papers 15584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Willem H. Buiter, 2010. "The limits to fiscal stimulus," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 48-70, Spring.
    53. Bierens, Herman J, 2000. "Nonparametric Nonlinear Cotrending Analysis, with an Application to Interest and Inflation in the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 323-337, July.
    54. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
    55. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2010. "The Lessons from the Banking Panics in the United States in the 1930s for the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 16365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mr. Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe: A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2009/023, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Ravi Jagannathan & Mudit Kapoor & Ernst Schaumburg, 2009. "Causes of the Great Recession of 2007-9: The Financial Crisis is the Symptom not the Disease!," NBER Working Papers 15404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2011. "Macro-finance interactions in the US: A global perspective," Working papers 23, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    2. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
    3. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2011. "The Effects of the US Economic and Financial Crises on Euro Area Convergence," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    7. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 432-444, March.
    8. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "Business cycle comovement in the G-7: common shocks or common transmission mechanisms?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2327-2345.
    9. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/lj8ndsutc8i5ast4viool3gqa is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Claudio Morana, 2008. "International stock markets comovements: the role of economic and financial integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 333-359, September.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    14. Klein, Alexander & Otsuy, Keisuke, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 147, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Alex Klein & Keisuke Otsu, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," Studies in Economics 1317, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    17. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    18. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 2, pages v1, 33-85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    19. Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka & Terrones, Marco E., 2020. "Global Recessions," MPRA Paper 98608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    21. Claude Diebolt & Antoine Parent & Jamel Trabelsi, 2010. "Expansionary Monetary Policy Under Liquidity Trap: 2009 in Light of 1929. A Counterfactual Analysis," Working Papers 10-07, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; financial crisis; economic crisis; boombust; credit cycle; international business cycle; factor vector autoregressive models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Silvia Maero (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cetorit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.