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Mortality modelling with regime-switching for the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option

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  • Gao, Huan
  • Mamon, Rogemar
  • Liu, Xiaoming
  • Tenyakov, Anton

Abstract

We consider three ways of putting forward a regime-switching approach in modelling the evolution of mortality rates for the purpose of pricing a guaranteed annuity option (GAO). This involves the extension of the Gompertz and non-mean reverting models as well as the adoption of a pure Markov model for the force of mortality. A continuous-time finite-state Markov chain is employed to describe the evolution of mortality model parameters which are then estimated using the filtered-based and least-squares methods. The adequacy of the regime-switching Gompertz model for the US mortality data is demonstrated via the goodness-of-fit metrics and likelihood-based selection criteria. A GAO is valued assuming the interest and mortality risk factors are switching regimes in accordance with the dynamics of two independent Markov chains. To obtain closed-form valuation formulae, we employ the change of measure technique with the pure endowment price as the numéraire. Numerical implementations are included to compare the results of the proposed approaches and those from the Monte Carlo simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Huan & Mamon, Rogemar & Liu, Xiaoming & Tenyakov, Anton, 2015. "Mortality modelling with regime-switching for the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 108-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:63:y:2015:i:c:p:108-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.03.018
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    Cited by:

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    5. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    6. Milevsky, Moshe A., 2020. "Calibrating Gompertz in reverse: What is your longevity-risk-adjusted global age?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 147-161.
    7. Zhao, Yixing & Mamon, Rogemar, 2018. "An efficient algorithm for the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option with correlated financial and mortality risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-12.

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