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Size and value anomalies under regime shifts

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Author Info
Massimo Guidolin
Allan Timmerman

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Abstract

This paper finds strong evidence of time-variations in the joint distribution of returns on a stock market portfolio and portfolios tracking size- and value effects. Mean returns, volatilities and correlations between these equity portfolios are found to be driven by underlying regimes that introduce short-run market timing opportunities for investors. The magnitude of the premia on the size and value portfolios and their hedging properties are found to vary significantly across regimes. Regimes are also found to have a large impact on the optimal asset allocation - especially under rebalancing - and on investors' welfare.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2005-007.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-007

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Keywords: Assets (Accounting);

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  2. Goetzmann, William Nelson & Jorion, Philippe, 1993. " Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 663-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ait-Sahalia, Y. & Brandt, M.W., 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Papers 34, Manitoba - Department of Economics.
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  6. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Working Papers 89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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  7. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Managing international portfolios with small capitalization stocks," Working Papers 2007-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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