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The Independence Axiom and Asset Returns

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Author Info
Larry G. Epstein
Stanley E. Zin

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Abstract

This paper integrates models of atemporal risk preference that relax the independence axiom into a recursive intertemporal asset-pricing framework. The resulting models are amenable to empirical analysis using market data and standard Euler equation methods. We are thereby able to provide the first non-laboratory-based evidence regarding the usefulness of several new theories of risk preference for addressing standard problems in dynamic economics. Using both stock and bond returns data, we find that a model incorporating risk preferences that exhibit firstorder risk aversion accounts for significantly more of the mean and autocorrelation properties of the data than models that exhibit only second-order risk aversion. Unlike the latter class of models which require parameter estimates that are outside of the admissible parameter space, e.g., negative rates of time preference, the model with first-order risk aversion generates point estimates that are economically meaningful. We also examine the relationship between first-order risk aversion and models that employ exogenous stochastic switching processes for consumption growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0109.

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Date of creation: Jul 1991
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Publication status: published as Epstein, Larry G. and Stanley E. Zin. "The Independence Axiom And Asset Returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, 2001, v8(5,Dec), 537-572.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0109

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  1. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Angelo Melino, 2006. "Measuring the Cost of Economic Fluctuations with Preferences that Rationalize the Equity Premium," Working Papers tecipa-256, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2006. "The Loss Aversion / Narrow Framing Approach to the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 12378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2008. "The exact distribution of the Hansen-Jagannathan bound," Working Paper 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside Risk," NBER Working Papers 11824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Individual Preferences, Monetary Gambles, and Stock Market Participation: A Case for Narrow Framing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1069-1090, September.
  7. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Working Papers melino-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1994. "The Implications of First-Order Risk Aversion for Asset Market Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 4624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Working Papers 10597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2003. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. David Backus, 2005. "Recursive Preferences," Working Papers 05-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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