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Measuring the Output and Prices of the Lottery Sector: An Application of Implicit Expected Utility Theory

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Author Info
Kam Yu

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Abstract

Using implicit expected utility theory, a money metric of utility derived from playing a lottery game is developed. Output of the lottery sector can be defined as the difference in utility with and without the game. Using a kinked parametric functional form, outputs of the Canadian Lotto 6/49 are estimated. Results show that this direct economic approach yield an average output which is almost three times of the official GDP, which takes total factor costs as output. A by-product of the estimation is an implicit price index for lottery, which can serve as a cost-of-living index for the CPI. The estimated price elasticity of demand -0.67 closely resembles results for the U.K. and Israel in previous studies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14020.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14020

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism

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    Other versions:
  2. Ian Walker, 1998. "The economic analysis of lotteries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 357-402, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
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  16. Machina, Mark J, 2001. " Payoff Kinks in Preferences over Lotteries," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 207-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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