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Measuring the Output and Prices of the Lottery Sector: An Application of Implicit Expected Utility Theory

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  • Kam Yu
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Abstract

Using implicit expected utility theory, a money metric of utility derived from playing a lottery game is developed. Output of the lottery sector can be defined as the difference in utility with and without the game. Using a kinked parametric functional form, outputs of the Canadian Lotto 6/49 are estimated. Results show that this direct economic approach yield an average output which is almost three times of the official GDP, which takes total factor costs as output. A by-product of the estimation is an implicit price index for lottery, which can serve as a cost-of-living index for the CPI. The estimated price elasticity of demand -0.67 closely resembles results for the U.K. and Israel in previous studies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14020.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Publication status: published as Kam Yu. "Measuring the Output and Prices of the Lottery Sector: An Application of Implicit Expected Utility Theory," in W. Erwin Diewert, John S. Greenlees and Charles R. Hulten, editors, "Price Index Concepts and Measurement" University of Chicago Press (2009)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14020

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