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A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability

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Author Info
Michael W. Brandt
Amit Goyal
Pedro Santa-Clara
Jonathan Storud
Abstract

We present a simulation-based method for solving discrete-time portfolio choice problems involving non-standard preferences, a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution, and, most importantly, a large number of state variables with potentially path-dependent or non-stationary dynamics. The method is flexible enough to accommodate intermediate consumption, portfolio constraints, parameter and model uncertainty, and learning. We first establish the properties of the method for the portfolio choice between a stock index and cash when the stock returns are either iid or predictable by the dividend yield. We then explore the problem of an investor who takes into account the predictability of returns but is uncertain about the parameters of the data generating process. The investor chooses the portfolio anticipating that future data realizations will contain useful information to learn about the true parameter values.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10934.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10934

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Y. Campbell & Luis Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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