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Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation

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  • De Long, J Bradford, et al

Abstract

Analyses of rational speculation usually presume that it dampens fluctuations caused by "noise" traders. This is not necessarily the case if noise traders follow positive-feedback strategies--buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall. It may pay to jump on the bandwagon and purchase ahead of noise demand. If rational speculators' early buying triggers positive-feedback trading, then an increase in the number of forward-looking speculators can increase volatility about fundamentals. This model is consistent with a number of empirical observations about the correlation of asset returns, the overreaction of prices to news, price bubbles, and expectations. Coauthors are Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 45 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 379-95

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:2:p:379-95

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  1. Campbell, John Y & Kyle, Albert S, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, January.
  2. Robert Shiller, 1988. "Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 287-297 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 890, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Leland, Hayne & Rubinstein, Mark, 1988. "Comments on the Market Crash: Six Months After," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 45-50, Summer.
  5. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  6. Fischer Black, 1988. "An Equilibrium Model of the Crash," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 269-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  8. Stein, Jeremy C, 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1123-45, December.
  9. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot., 1986. "Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Economics Working Papers 8603, University of California at Berkeley.
  12. Hart, Oliver D, 1977. "On the Profitability of Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 579-97, November.
  13. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-52, October.
  14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
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