Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation
AbstractAnalyses of rational speculation usually presume that it dampens fluctuations caused by "noise" traders. This is not necessarily the case if noise traders follow positive-feedback strategies--buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall. It may pay to jump on the bandwagon and purchase ahead of noise demand. If rational speculators' early buying triggers positive-feedback trading, then an increase in the number of forward-looking speculators can increase volatility about fundamentals. This model is consistent with a number of empirical observations about the correlation of asset returns, the overreaction of prices to news, price bubbles, and expectations. Coauthors are Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.
Volume (Year): 45 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Other versions of this item:
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
- Fischer Black, 1988. "An Equilibrium Model of the Crash," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 269-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hart, Oliver D. & Kreps, David M., 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Scholarly Articles 3448679, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A., 1986.
"Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt26w957fs, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot., 1986. "Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Economics Working Papers 8603, University of California at Berkeley.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets,"
New England Economic Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
- Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 890, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," NBER Working Papers 2748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-52, October.
- Hart, Oliver D, 1977. "On the Profitability of Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 579-97, November.
- John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1988.
"Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behavior,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y & Kyle, Albert S, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, January.
- Kyle, Albert & Campbell, John, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Scholarly Articles 3208217, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Kyle, A.S., 1988. "Smart Money, Noise Trading And Stock Price Behavior," Papers 95, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Stein, Jeremy C, 1987.
"Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1123-45, December.
- Stein, Jeremy C., 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Scholarly Articles 3660740, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- Robert Shiller, 1988. "Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 287-297 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leland, Hayne & Rubinstein, Mark, 1988. "Comments on the Market Crash: Six Months After," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 45-50, Summer.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.