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Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets

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  • Hirota, Shinichi
  • Sunder, Shyam

Abstract

We experimentally explore how investor decision horizons influence the formation of stock prices. We find that in long-horizon sessions, where investors collect dividends till maturity, prices converge to the fundamental levels derived from dividends through backward induction. In short-horizon sessions, where investors exit the market by receiving the price (not dividends), prices levels and paths become indeterminate and lose dividend anchors; investors tend to form their expectations of future prices by forward, not backward, induction. These laboratory results suggest that investors' short horizons and the consequent difficulty of backward induction are important contributors to the emergence of price bubbles.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 31 (2007)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1875-1909

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:31:y:2007:i:6:p:1875-1909

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2010. "Positive expectations feedback experiments and number guessing games as models of financial markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 964-984, December.
  2. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.
  3. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2013. "What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary," Papers 1312.7460, arXiv.org.
  4. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2723-53, October.
  5. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Shachat, Jason & Srivinasan, Anand, 2011. "Informational price cascades and non-aggregation of asymmetric information in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 30308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Schoenberg, Eric J. & Haruvy, Ernan, 2012. "Relative performance information in asset markets: An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1143-1155.
  8. Oechssler, Jörg & Schmidt, Carsten & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2007. "Asset Bubbles without Dividends - An Experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-01, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  9. Palan, Stefan, 2010. "Digital options and efficiency in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 506-522, September.
  10. repec:wyi:wpaper:002023 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Gregory Waymire & Sudipta Basu, 2011. "Economic crisis and accounting evolution," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 207-232, August.
  12. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence, Risk Aversion and Individual Financial Decisions in Experimental Asset Markets," MPRA Paper 53114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2014.
  13. Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2008. "Positive Expectations Feedback Experiments and Number Guessing Games as Models of Financial Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-076/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Yuri Biondi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo & Serge Galam, 2011. "The formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Papers 1105.3228, arXiv.org.

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