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The Formation of Price Forecasts in Experimental Markets

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Author Info
Williams, Arlington W

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Abstract

This study utilizes laboratory experimental methods to evaluate the empirical validity of: (1) "Muthian" rational expectations assumptions, (2) an adaptive expectations model, and (3) an extrapolative expectations model. Over 5 00 price forecasts from 146 participants in twelve experimental double-auction m arkets with a cash reward structure are analyzed. The forecasting objective is t hemean price over a sequence of trading periods governed by stationary market parameters. The price forecasts are found to be inconsistent with strict Muthian rational expectations and the extrapolative modelis not supported by the data. However, the forecasts generally support the adaptive expectations model. Copyright 1987 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 19 (1987)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-18
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:19:y:1987:i:1:p:1-18

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Wilfred Amaldoss & Sanjay Jain, 2002. "An Analysis of the Impact of Social Factors on Purchase Behavior," Review of Marketing Science Working Papers 2-1-1021, Berkeley Electronic Press. [Downloadable!]
  2. Douglas Stevens & Arlington Williams, 2004. "Inefficiency in Earnings Forecasts: Experimental Evidence of Reactions to Positive vs. Negative Information," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 75-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Revised June 2003)," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  4. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Generalised Fading Memory Learning in a Cobweb Model: some evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 272, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, . "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2006. "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study," Working Papers in Economics 06/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Erik Theissen, 2007. "An analysis of private investors’ stock market return forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 35-43, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  9. Shinichi Hirota & Shyam Sunder, 2005. "Price Bubbles sans Dividend Anchors: Evidence from Laboratory Stock Markets," ISER Discussion Paper 0634, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Papers 334, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Version March 2004)," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  12. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2009. "Experimental Evidence on Inflation Expectation Formation," Discussion Paper 2009-07, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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