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Daily Momentum And Contrarian Behavior Of Index Fund Investors

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Author Info
Massimo Massa () (Department of Finance)
William N. Goetzmann () (Yale University, School of Management)

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Abstract

We use a two-year panel of individual accounts in an S&P 500 index mutual fund to examine the trading and investment behavior of more than 91 thousand investors who have chosen a low-cost, passively managed vehicle for savings. This allows us to characterize investors' heterogeneity in terms of their investment patterns. In particular, we identify positive feedback traders as well as contrarians whose activities are conditional upon preceding day stock market moves. We test the consistency and profitability of these conditional strategies over time. We find that more frequent traders are typically contrarians, while infrequent traders are more typically momentum investors. The dynamics of these investor classes help us to partially examine the question of the marginal investor over the period of our study. We find that the behavior of momentum investors is typically more correlated to changes in the S&P 500 and we trace its dynamics over time. We build up "behavioral factors" based on contrarian and momentum flows and show that they perform well against a benchmark of loadings on latent factors extracted from returns. We also use the behavior of momentum and contrarian investors to build a measure of "market polarization". This captures the dispersion of beliefs among the investors and helps to account for asset pricing better than standard measures of dispersion of beliefs.

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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm134.

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Date of creation: 13 Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm134

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shirishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2003. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," NBER Working Papers 9470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Julie Agnew, 2004. "An Analysis Of How Individuals React To Market Returns In One 401(k) Plan," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-13, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dorn, Daniel & Huberman, Gur & Sengmueller, Paul, 2007. "Correlated Trading and Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 6530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H.,, 2005. "A nonlinear structural model for volatility clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andrea Frazzini & Owen A. Lamont, 2005. "Dumb Money: Mutual Fund Flows and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag & Francesca Pancotto, 2009. "Does Volatility matter? Expectations of price return and variability in an asset pricing experiment," LEM Papers Series 2009/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Jon Eggins & Robert J. Hill, 2008. "Momentum and Contrarian Stock-Market Indices," Discussion Papers 2008-07, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
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