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Market Created Risk

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  • ALAN KRAUS
  • MAXWELL SMITH

Abstract

We develop a multiperiod rational expectations model of securities market equilibrium in which equilibrium prices may move between periods even though it is common knowledge that no new information has arrived about ultimate security payoffs. This happens because investors know they have imperfect information about the endowments of other investors and this knowledge affects their probability beliefs about the prices that will prevail at the intermediate trading date. These beliefs are reflected in the equilibrium at the initial trading date when investors focus on the probabilities of intermediate capital gains and losses, rather than ultimate payoffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Kraus & Maxwell Smith, 1989. "Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-569, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:3:p:557-569
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb04378.x
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    Cited by:

    1. H. Henry Cao & Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Inventory Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 9, pages 363-413, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Todd Smith, R., 2001. "Price volatility, welfare, and trading hours in asset markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 479-503, March.
    3. Goetzmann, William N. & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Dispersion of opinion and stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 324-349, August.
    4. Goetzmann, William N. & Massa, Massimo, 2002. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 375-389, September.
    5. David M. Frankel, 2008. "Adaptive Expectations And Stock Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 595-619, May.
    6. Raj Aggarwal & Edward Gruca, 1993. "Intraday Trading Patterns In The Equity Options Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 285-297, December.
    7. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2001. "Heterogeneity of Trade and Stock Returns. Evidence from Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm176, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
    8. Siokis, Fotios M., 2012. "Stock market dynamics: Before and after stock market crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1315-1322.
    9. Alex Dontoh & Suresh Radhakrishnan & Joshua Ronen, 2007. "Is stock price a good measure for assessing value-relevance of earnings? An empirical test," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 3-45, April.
    10. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2000. "Daily Momentum And Contrarian Behavior Of Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm134, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2001.
    11. Wongchoti, Udomsak & Wu, Fei & Young, Martin, 2009. "Buy and sell dynamics following high market returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 12-20, March.
    12. Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003. "Rational panics and stock market crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 234-263, June.
    13. Jeffrey Hobbs & Hei Wai Lee & Vivek Singh, 2017. "New evidence on the effect of belief heterogeneity on stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, February.
    14. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-1130, December.
    15. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2001. "Dispersion of Opinion and Stock Returns: Evidence from Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm227, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2003.
    16. Kapopoulos, Panayotis & Siokis, Fotios, 2005. "Stock market crashes and dynamics of aftershocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 48-54, October.
    17. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2001. "Dispersion of Opinion and Stock Returns: Evidence from Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm227, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2003.

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