Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes
AbstractA theory is developed that explains how stocks can crash without fundamental news and why crashes are more common than frenzies. A crash occurs via the interaction of rational and naive investors. Naive traders believe that prices follow a random walk with serially correlated volatility. Their expectations of future volatility are formed adaptively. When the market crashes, naive traders sell stock in response to the apparent increase in volatility. Since rational traders are risk averse as well, a lower price is needed to clear the market: the crash is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Frenzies cannot occur in this model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 31688.
Date of creation: 01 May 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Economic Review, May 2008, vol. 49 no. 2, pp. 595-619
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics; Underlying Principles
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
- Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992.
"Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1594, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-65, June.
- Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes and Wisdom After the Fact," Discussion Papers 1992_18, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Grether, David M., .
"Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic,"
245, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1983.
"Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
1186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1998.
"Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1172, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340 Elsevier.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1998. "Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System," NBER Working Papers 6375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003.
"Rational panics and stock market crashes,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 234-263, June.
- Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-94, October-D.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
- Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002.
"Bubbles and Crashes,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp401, Financial Markets Group.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012.
"Volatility, Information And Stock Market Crashes,"
Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance,
ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 49-67, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephanie Bridges) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Stephanie Bridges to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.