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What Moves Stock Prices?

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Author Info

  • David M. Cutler
  • James M. Poterba
  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

This paper estimates the fraction of the variance in aggregate stock returns that can be attributed to various kinds of news. First, we consider macroeconomic news and show that it is difficult to explain more than one third of the return variance from this source. Second, to explore the possibility that the stock market responds to information that is omitted from our specifications, we also examine market moves coincident with major political and world events. The relatively small market responses to such news, along with evidence that large market moves often occur on days without any identifiable major news releases, casts doubt on the view that stock price movements are fully explicable by news about future cash flows and discount rates.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2538.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2538.

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Date of creation: Mar 1988
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Publication status: published as The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 4-12, (Spring 1989).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2538

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