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Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices

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Author Info
Joseph Chen
Harrison Hong
Jeremy C. Stein

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Abstract

This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced: 1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months; and 2) positive returns over the prior thirty-six months. The first finding is consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (1999), which predicts that negative asymmetries are more likely to occur when there are large differences of opinion among investors. The latter finding fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (1982) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7687.

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Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7687

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Aamir R. Hashmi & Anthony S. Tay, 2001. "Global and Regional Sources of Risk in Equity Markets: Evidence from Factor Models with Time-Varying Conditional Skewness," Departmental Working Papers wp0116, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Martin Scheicher & Ernst Glatzer, 2003. "Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements," Working Paper Series 212, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 519, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Javier Estrada, 2004. "The cost of equity of internet stocks: a downside risk approach," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 239-254, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Changli He & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Parameterizing unconditional skewness in models for financial time series," CREATES Research Papers 2008-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Griffin, John M. & Nardari, Federico & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Stock Market Trading and Market Conditions," Working Paper Series 2004-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kurt Braennaes & Niklas Nordman, 2001. "An Alternative Conditional Asymmetry Specification for Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Md. Arifur Rahman, 2007. "The Information Content of Cross-sectional Volatility for Future Market Volatility: Evidence from Australian Equity Returns," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Lille Graduate School of Management, vol. 4(1), pages 91-124, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside Risk," NBER Working Papers 11824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Estada, Javier, 2003. "Mean-semivariance behavior: An alternative behavioral model," IESE Research Papers D/492, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  11. Estrada, Javier, 2003. "Cost of equity of Internet stocks: A downside risk approach, The," IESE Research Papers D/491, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2005. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," NBER Working Papers 11280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. José M. Marín & Jacques Olivier, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: Insider Trading and Crashes," Economics Working Papers 948, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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