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The Threshold Effect in Expected Volatility: A Model Based on Asymmetric Information

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Author Info
Longin, Francois M
Abstract

This article develops theoretical insight into the threshold effect in expected volatility, which means that large shocks are less persistent in volatility than small shocks. The model uses the Kyle-Admati-Pfleiderer setup with liquidity traders, informed traders, and a market maker. Information is modeled as a GARCH process. It is shown that the GARCH process for information is transformed into a TARCH process (for "threshold GARCH") for the market price changes. Working with information flows allows one to derive implications for trading volume and market liquidity which provide the basis for a more complete test of the model. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 10 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 837-69
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:10:y:1997:i:3:p:837-69

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  1. Adam Clements & Scott White, 2005. "Non-linear filtering with state dependant transition probabilities: A threshold (size effect) SV model," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 191, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2005. "The joint dynamics of liquidity, returns, and volatility across small and large firms," Staff Reports 207, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. François Longin, 1998. "Value at Risk : Une nouvelle approche fondée sur les valeurs extrêmes," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 52, pages 02, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
  4. Longin, François, 1999. "From Value at Risk to Stress Testing: The Extreme Value Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frankel, David M., 2007. "Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes," Staff General Research Papers 12817, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk & Michiel de Pooter, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting S&P 500 Volatility: Long Memory, Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-067/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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