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Volatility Forecasting

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Author Info
Torben G. Andersen () (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University)
Tim Bollerslev () (Department of Economics, Duke University)
Peter F. Christoffersen () (Faculty of Management, McGill University)
Francis X. Diebold () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3,4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 05-011.

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Length: 111 pages
Date of creation: 22 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:05-011

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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  1. Éric Jacquier & Nicholas G. Polson & Peter E. Rossi, 1999. "Stochastic Volatility: Univariate and Multivariate Extensions," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-26, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Suhejla Hoiti & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Daniel Slottje, 2005. "Measuring the Volatility in U.S. Treasury Benchmarks and Debt Instruments," DEA Working Papers 14, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Clare, Andrew & Courtenay, Roger, 2001. "What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Valeri Voev, 2007. "Dynamic Modeling of Large Dimensional Covariance Matrices," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  5. Helena Veiga, 2006. "Volatility Forecasts: A Continuous Time Model Versus Discrete Time Models1," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws062509, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luisa Bisaglia & Silvano Bordignon & Francesco Lisi, 2003. "k -Factor GARMA models for intraday volatility forecasting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 251-254, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/02, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andrew Clare & Roger Courtenay, . "Assessing the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on securities prices under different monetary policy regimes," Bank of England working papers 125, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Patton, 2006. "Volatility Forecast Comparison using Imperfect Volatility Proxies," Research Paper Series 175, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ariño, Miguel A. & Canela, Miguel A., 2006. "Study of the dollar-euro exchange rate," IESE Research Papers D/620, IESE Business School, revised 30 Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gregory H. Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility
    ," Working Papers 07-20, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hao Zhou, 2003. "Itô conditional moment generator and the estimation of short rate processes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Working Papers 2005-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Genaro, SUCARRAT, 2006. "The First Stage in Hendry’s Reduction Theory Revisited," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2006041, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  15. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano & Anthony S. Tay & Yiu Kuen Tse, 2006. "Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  16. Abramov, Vyacheslav & Klebaner, Fima, 2006. "Forecasting and testing a non-constant volatility," MPRA Paper 207, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 398-404, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Dagfinn Rime & Genaro Sucarrat, 2007. "Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity," Economics Working Papers we077039, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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