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A first look at the empirical relation between spot and futures electricity prices in the United States

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  • Hany A. Shawky
  • Achla Marathe
  • Christopher L. Barrett

Abstract

In this article we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California–Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium for 6‐month futures contracts is estimated to be 0.1328% per day or about 4% per month. Using a GARCH specification, we estimate minimum variance hedge ratios for electricity futures. Finally, we study the dynamic relation between spot and futures prices using an Exponential GARCH model and between the spot and futures returns series using a vector autoregression. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:931–955, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Hany A. Shawky & Achla Marathe & Christopher L. Barrett, 2003. "A first look at the empirical relation between spot and futures electricity prices in the United States," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 931-955, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:23:y:2003:i:10:p:931-955
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    Cited by:

    1. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    2. Carlotta Penone & Elisa Giampietri & Samuele Trestini, 2022. "Futures–spot price transmission in EU corn markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 679-709, July.
    3. Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Osama Ahmed, 2021. "Assessing the Current Situation of the World Wheat Market Leadership: Using the Semi-Parametric Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
    7. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Akylas C. Stratigakos & Panos C. Papageorgiou & Konstantinos F. Krommydas, 2019. "Testing the Efficiency of Electricity Markets Using a New Composite Measure Based on Nonlinear TS Tools," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-30, February.
    8. Chen, Yu-Fu & Mu, Xiaoyi, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    9. Zhige Wu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink & Getu Hailu, 2018. "Asymmetric spot‐futures price adjustments in grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1549-1564, December.
    10. Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Do future markets protect the spot markets in developing countries? The case of the Egyptian wheat market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(5), pages 65-83.
    11. Yu, Hui & Ding, Yinghui & Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & Jia, Xiaoliang & Wang, Xinya & Guo, Sui, 2021. "Multi-scale comovement of the dynamic correlations between copper futures and spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Spodniak, Petr & Collan, Mikael, 2018. "Forward risk premia in long-term transmission rights: The case of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) in the Nordic electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 194-206.
    13. Bevin-McCrimmon, Fergus & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & McCarten, Matthew & Sise, Greg, 2018. "Liquidity and risk premia in electricity futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 503-517.
    14. Bonaldo, Cinzia & Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2022. "The relationship between day-ahead and future prices in electricity markets: An empirical analysis on Italy, France, Germany, and Switzerland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Wolfgang Bessler & Wolfgang Drobetz & Jörg Seidel, 2008. "Ship funds as a new asset class: An empirical analysis of the relationship between spot and forward prices in freight markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(2), pages 102-120, July.
    16. Schubert, Jens, 2015. "The impact of forward contracting on tacit collusion: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 109-123.
    17. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    18. Kalantzis, Fotis G. & Milonas, Nikolaos T., 2013. "Analyzing the impact of futures trading on spot price volatility: Evidence from the spot electricity market in France and Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 454-463.
    19. Estevão, João & Raposo, Clara, 2018. "The impact of the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework Agreement on electricity prices in MIBEL: A mixed-methods approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 411-417.
    20. Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Assessing the current situation of the world wheat market leadership: Using the semi-parametric approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2).
    21. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.

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