Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool
AbstractThis paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis (futures price less the spot price); and generally reflects the typical seasonal patterns in weekly spot prices. Results show that the time series model forecasts significantly beat futures prices when using the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test. Furthermore, the average forecasting error of futures prices reveals that they are significantly above the settlement spot price at the ‘delivery week’ and their size increases as the time to maturity increases. Those agents taking positions in weekly futures contracts at Nord Pool might find the estimated ARIMAX model useful for improving their expectation formation process for the underlying spot price.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2007.88.
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Electricity Markets; Power Derivatives and Forecasting Electricity Prices;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-10-20 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-10-20 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Alvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002.
"Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence,"
Economics Working Papers
we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
- Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
- Moulton, Jonathan S., 2005. "California electricity futures: the NYMEX experience," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 181-194, January.
- Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
- Terry Robinson & Andrzej Baniak, 2002. "The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-1495.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67.
- W. David Walls, 1999. "Volatility, volume and maturity in electricity futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 283-287.
- Harrison Hong, 2000. "A Model of Returns and Trading in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 959-988, 04.
- Peirson, John & Henley, Andrew, 1994. "Electricity load and temperature : Issues in dynamic specification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 235-243, October.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004.
"Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA models for daily electricity spot prices,"
Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings
158, Econometric Society.
- M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-071/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Førsund, Finn R. & Hoel, Michael, 2004.
"Properties of a non-competitive electricity market dominated by hydroelectric power,"
07/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Michael Hoel & Finn R. Førsund, 2004. "Properties of a Non-Competitive Electricity Market Dominated by Hydroelectric Power," Working Papers 2004.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Avsar, S Gulay & Goss, Barry A, 2001. "Forecast Errors and Efficiency in the US Electricity Futures Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 479-99, December.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1998. "Residential energy demand and the interaction of price and temperature: British experimental evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 157-171, April.
- Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.