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Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool

Author

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  • Hipòlit Torró

    (Universitat de València)

Abstract

This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis (futures price less the spot price); and generally reflects the typical seasonal patterns in weekly spot prices. Results show that the time series model forecasts significantly beat futures prices when using the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test. Furthermore, the average forecasting error of futures prices reveals that they are significantly above the settlement spot price at the ‘delivery week’ and their size increases as the time to maturity increases. Those agents taking positions in weekly futures contracts at Nord Pool might find the estimated ARIMAX model useful for improving their expectation formation process for the underlying spot price.

Suggested Citation

  • Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.88
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    2. Ronald Huisman & Victoria Stradnic & Sjur Westgaard, 2013. "Renewable energy and electricity prices: indirect empirical evidence from hydro power," Working Papers 2013/24, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Ronald Huisman & Victoria Stradnic & Sjur Westgaard, 2013. "Renewable energy and electricity prices: indirect empirical evidence from hydro power," Working Papers 2013/24, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    4. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
    5. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Markets; Power Derivatives and Forecasting Electricity Prices;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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