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Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium

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  • Hipòlit Torró

    (Universitat de València)

  • Julio Lucia

    (Universitat de València)

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange, Nord Pool. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk premiums in short-term electricity futures prices. The significance and size of the premiums, however, varies seasonally over the year; whereas it is greatest during winter, it is zero in summer. It is also found that time-varying risk premiums are significantly related to unexpectedly low reservoir levels. Furthermore, before the unprecedented supply-shock that hit the Nord Pool market around the end of year 2002, the variation of the risk premiums was related to the variance and the skewness of future spot prices. This result is consistent with the view that risk considerations played a role in the determination of futures prices. Finally, additional evidence provided throughout the paper supports the view that circumstances changed in the Nord Pool market after the shock period. Este trabajo estudia la relación entre los precios de contado y a futuro de la electricidad a través de un análisis empírico realizado sobre los precios a futuro a corto plazo negociados durante una década en el mercado nórdico de electricidad, Nord Pool. Los resultados indican que existen primas de riesgo positivas en media en los contratos de futuro a corto plazo. Sin embargo, la significatividad y tamaño de las primas varia estacionalmente a lo largo del año, siendo las de mayor tamaño durante el invierno y nulas durante el verano. También se encuentra evidencia significativa relativa a la capacidad explicativa de los niveles anormalmente bajos de las reservas hidráulicas sobre la variación temporal de las primas de riesgo. Además, antes del shock de oferta que azotó el mercado Nord Pool a finales del año 2002, la variación de las primas de riesgo estaba relacionada con la varianza y asimetría de los precios futuros de la electricidad. Este resultado es coherente con la visión de que el riesgo se tomaba en consideración en la determinación de los precios a futuro. Finalmente, a lo largo de todo el documento se muestra evidencia adicional a favor de la opinión de que las cirscustancias cambiaron en el Nord Pool después del periodo turbulento.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2008-08.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2008-08.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2008-08

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Keywords: Prima de riesgo; futuros sobre la electricidad; Nord Pool risk premium; electricity futures; Nord Pool;

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References

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  1. M. von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik & Amundsen, Eirik S. & Bergman, Lars, 2004. "The Nordic Market: Signs Of Stress?," Working Papers in Economics 15/04, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
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  6. Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
  8. Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
  2. Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.
  3. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
  4. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
  5. Huisman, Ronald & Kilic, Mehtap, 2012. "Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 892-898.
  6. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
  7. Michal Michalovský & Igor Paholok, 2011. "Portfolio Theory and Electricity Forward Markets," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(1), pages 76-103.
  8. Torro, Hipolit, 2009. "Assessing the influence of spot price predictability on electricity futures hedging," MPRA Paper 18892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Furió, Dolores & Meneu, Vicente, 2010. "Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 784-793, February.

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