Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts
AbstractWe discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets. These forward/futures type contracts deliver (either physically or financially) electricity over a specified time period, and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price. We propose to use the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined in these markets. For general stochastic dynamical models, we connect the spot price, the instantaneous-delivery forward price and the swap price, and analyze two different ways to apply the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to swap pricing: Either one specifies a dynamics for the non-existing instantaneous-delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics, or one models directly on the swaps. The former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price, even when the forward dynamics is simple. The latter has some theoretical problems due to a no-arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery periods. To overcome this problem, a practical modeling approach is analyzed. The market is supposed only to consist of non-overlapping swaps, and these are modelled directly. A thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from Nord Pool. Our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes, however, this is an area of further research.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- H�lyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo_Gustavo Figueroa, 2005.
"Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality,"
0501011, EconWPA, revised 10 Sep 2005.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Gustavo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0507, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Steen Koekebakker & Gudbrand Lien, 2004. "Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Futures Prices—Evidence from Wheat Options," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1018-1031.
- Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008.
"Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
- Fred Espen Benth & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel, 2006. "Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0611, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1990.
"Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, December.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, December.
- M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298.
- Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Lemming, Jacob, 2003. "Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 409-424, September.
- Juri Hinz, 2003. "Modelling day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-161.
- Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. " Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
- Fred Espen Benth & Lars Ekeland & Ragnar Hauge & Bj�Rn Fredrik Nielsen, 2003. "A note on arbitrage-free pricing of forward contracts in energy markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 325-336.
- Kerkhof, F.L.J. & Pelsser, A., 2002. "Observational Equivalence of Discrete String Models and Market Models," Discussion Paper 2002-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Jimmy E. Hilliard & Jorge A. Reis, 1999. "Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 273-286.
- Geman, Hélyette & Roncoroni, Andréa, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1433, Paris Dauphine University.
- Markus Burger & Bernhard Klar & Alfred Muller & Gero Schindlmayr, 2004. "A spot market model for pricing derivatives in electricity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 109-122.
- Hepperger, Peter, 2012. "Hedging electricity swaptions using partial integro-differential equations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 600-622.
- Janssen, Matthias & Wobben, Magnus, 2008. "Electricity pricing and market power: Evidence from Germany," CAWM Discussion Papers 9, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM), University of Münster.
- Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
- Marcelo G. Figueroa, 2006. "Pricing Multiple Interruptible-Swing Contracts," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0606, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Michael B. Giles & Christoph Reisinger, 2012. "Stochastic finite differences and multilevel Monte Carlo for a class of SPDEs in finance," Papers 1204.1442, arXiv.org.
- Bazmi, Aqeel Ahmed & Zahedi, Gholamreza, 2011. "Sustainable energy systems: Role of optimization modeling techniques in power generation and supply—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3480-3500.
- Adrien Nguyen Huu & Nadia Oudjane, 2014. "Hedging Expected Losses on Derivatives in Electricity Futures Markets," Papers 1401.8271, arXiv.org.
- Alvaro Cartea & Thomas Williams, 2006.
"UK Gas Markets: the Market Price of Risk and Applications to Multiple Interruptible Supply Contracts,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0608, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Cartea, Álvaro & Williams, Thomas, 2008. "UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 829-846, May.
- Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki, 2010. "An agent-based approach with collaboration among agents: Estimation of wholesale electricity price on PJM and artificial data generated by a mean reverting model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1025-1033, September.
- Joanna Janczura, 2012. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model," Papers 1203.5442, arXiv.org.
- Olsen, Eirik Tandberg & Sanda, Gaute Egeland & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2010. "Selective Hedging in Hydro-Based Electricity Companies," MPRA Paper 47820, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2013.
- Frestad, Dennis, 2012. "Liquidity and dirty hedging in the Nordic electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1341-1355.
- Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
- Asger Lunde & Kasper V. Olesen, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of Energy Forward Returns - Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange," CREATES Research Papers 2013-19, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach," Papers 1205.2299, arXiv.org.
- Álvaro Cartea & Carlos González-Pedraz, 2010.
"How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach,"
Business Economics Working Papers
wb103206, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
- Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
- Janssen, Matthias & Wobben, Magnus, 2008. "Electricity Pricing and Market Power - Evidence from Germany," MPRA Paper 11400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Derivatives Pricing with Forward-Looking Information," Working Papers on Finance 1317, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
- repec:dgr:uvatin:2013068 is not listed on IDEAS
- Eran Raviv & Kees E. Bouwman & Dick van Dijk, 2013. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-068/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Matthias Janssen & Magnus Wobben, . "Electricity Pricing and Market Power - Evidence from Germany," Working Papers 200121, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
- Pineda, S. & Conejo, A.J., 2012. "Managing the financial risks of electricity producers using options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2216-2227.
- Redl, Christian & Haas, Reinhard & Huber, Claus & Böhm, Bernhard, 2009. "Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 356-364, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.