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Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Álvaro Cartea
Marcelo Figueroa
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This paper presents a mean-reverting jump diffusion model for the electricity spot price and derives the corresponding forward price in closed-form. Based on historical spot data and forward data from England and Wales the model is calibrated and months, quarters, and seasons--ahead forward surfaces are presented.
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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Mathematical Finance .
Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 313-335
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:313-335Contact details of provider: Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=100141
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For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Keywords: Energy derivatives electricity forward curve forward surfaces Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Fred Espen Benth & Lars Ekeland & Ragnar Hauge & BjøRn Fredrik Nielsen, 2003.
"A note on arbitrage-free pricing of forward contracts in energy markets ,"
Applied Mathematical Finance ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 325-336, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000.
"Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985.
" On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Álvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002.
"Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence ,"
Economics Working Papers
we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
[Downloadable!]
Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997.
" The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008.
"Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal ,"
LIUC Papers in Economics
210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
[Downloadable!]
Marcelo G. Figueroa, 2006.
"Pricing Multiple Interruptible-Swing Contracts ,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0606, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
[Downloadable!]
Alexander Boogert & Dominique Dupont, 2007.
"When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices ,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0707, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
[Downloadable!]
Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008.
"Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium ,"
Working Papers. Serie EC
2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
[Downloadable!]
Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007.
"Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices ,"
MPRA Paper
4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
Alvaro Cartea & Thomas Williams, 2006.
"UK Gas Markets: the Market Price of Risk and Applications to Multiple Interruptible Supply Contracts ,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0608, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Alvaro Cartea & Pablo Villaplana Conde, 2007.
"Spot Price Modeling and the Valuation of Electricity Forward Contracts: the Role of Demand and Capacity ,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0718, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
[Downloadable!]
Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo G. Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2008.
"Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints ,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0802, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
[Downloadable!]
T M Christensen & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008.
"It never rains but it pours: Modelling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices ,"
NCER Working Paper Series
25, National Centre for Econometric Research.
[Downloadable!]
Rafal Weron, 2005.
"Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options ,"
Econometrics
0502003, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
Fred Espen Benth & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel, 2006.
"Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium ,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0611, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
[Downloadable!]
Reik H. Boerger & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel & Gero Schindlmayr, 2007.
"A Multivariate Commodity Analysis and Applications to Risk Management ,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0709, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
[Downloadable!]
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