Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium
AbstractIn this paper we provide a framework that explains how the market risk premium, defined as the difference between forward prices and spot forecasts, depends on the risk preferences of market players. In commodities markets this premium is an important indicator of the behaviour of buyers and sellers and their views on the market spanning between short-term and long-term horizons. We show that under certain assumptions it is possible to derive explicit solutions that link levels of risk aversion and market power with market prices of risk and the market risk premium.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 0611.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2006-11-18 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MIC-2006-11-18 (Microeconomics)
- NEP-UPT-2006-11-18 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Gustavo Figueroa, 2005.
"Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0507, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo_Gustavo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Finance 0501011, EconWPA, revised 10 Sep 2005.
- Cartea, Álvaro & Williams, Thomas, 2008.
"UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 829-846, May.
- Alvaro Cartea & Thomas Williams, 2006. "UK Gas Markets: the Market Price of Risk and Applications to Multiple Interruptible Supply Contracts," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0608, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
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