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Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets

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Author Info
Hendrik Bessembinder (David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah and Goizueta Business School, Emory University)
Michael L. Lemmon (David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah,)

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Abstract

Spot power prices are volatile and since electricity cannot be economically stored, familiar arbitrage-based methods are not applicable for pricing power derivative contracts. This paper presents an equilibrium model implying that the forward power price is a downward biased predictor of the future spot price if expected power demand is low and demand risk is moderate. However, the equilibrium forward premium increases when either expected demand or demand variance is high, because of positive skewness in the spot power price distribution. Preliminary empirical evidence indicates that the premium in forward power prices is greatest during the summer months. Copyright The American Finance Association 2002.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 1347-1382
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:57:y:2002:i:3:p:1347-1382

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  1. Bent Jesper Christensen & Thomas Elgaard Jensen & Rune Mølgaard, 2007. "Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity," CREATES Research Papers 2007-30, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lester Hadsell, 2006. "A TARCH examination of the return volatility--volume relationship in electricity futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 893-901, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2007. "Efficiency of the California electricity reserves market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1127-1144. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alvaro Cartea & Pablo Villaplana Conde, 2007. "Spot Price Modeling and the Valuation of Electricity Forward Contracts: the Role of Demand and Capacity," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0718, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Laura Onofri, 2005. "Electricity Market Restructuring and Energy Contracts: A Critical Note on the EU Commission’s NEA Decision," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 71-85, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. repec:mop:credwp:08.09.77 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo G. Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2008. "Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0802, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Povh, Martin & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2009. "Modeling long-term electricity forward prices," MPRA Paper 13162, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Gravel, Éric & Bernard, Jean-Thomas, 2003. "Environmental Impact Assessment and Investment under Uncertainty. An Application to Power Grid Interconnection," Cahiers de recherche 0303, GREEN. [Downloadable!]
  10. Baldursson , Fridrik M. & von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik, 2007. "Vertical Integration and Long-Term Contracts in Risky Markets," Memorandum 01/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kim Christensen & Roel Oomen & Mark Podolskij, 2009. "Realised Quantile-Based Estimation of the Integrated Variance," CREATES Research Papers 2009-27, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jean-Daniel Saphores & Éric Gravel & Jean-Thomas Bernard, 2003. "Environmental Impact Assessment and Investment under Uncertainty: An Application to Power Grid Interconnection," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-29, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  13. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J. & Schlichter, F., 2007. "Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations," Research Paper ERS-2007-089-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Alexander Boogert & Dominique Dupont, 2007. "When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0707, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  17. Pablo Villaplana, 2003. "Pricing Power Derivatives: A Two-Factor Jump-Diffusion Approach," Business Economics Working Papers wb031805, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
  18. SMEERS, Yves, 2005. "How well can one measure market power in restructured electricity systems ?," CORE Discussion Papers 2005050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  19. Francis Longstaff & Ashley Wang, 2002. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1046, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  20. Vazquez, Miguel & Barquín, Julián, 2009. "A fundamental power price model with oligopolistic competition representation," MPRA Paper 15629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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