Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium
AbstractIn this paper we provide a framework that explains how the market risk premium, defined as the difference between forward prices and spot forecasts, depends on the risk preferences of market players and the interaction between buyers and sellers. In commodities markets this premium is an important indicator of the behavior of buyers and sellers and their views on the market spanning between short-term and long-term horizons. We show that under certain assumptions it is possible to derive explicit solutions that link levels of risk aversion and market power with market prices of risk and the market risk premium. We apply our model to the German electricity market and show that the market risk premium exhibits a term structure which can be explained by the combination of two factors. Firstly, the levels of risk aversion of buyers and sellers, and secondly, how the market power of producers, relative to that of buyers, affects forward prices with different delivery periods.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
G13 G11 D81 Q40 Contango Backwardation Market price of risk Electricity forwards Market risk premium Forward risk premium Forward bias Market power;
Other versions of this item:
- Fred Espen Benth & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel, 2006. "Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0611, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Gustavo Figueroa, 2005.
"Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0507, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo_Gustavo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Finance 0501011, EconWPA, revised 10 Sep 2005.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Alvaro Cartea & Thomas Williams, 2006.
"UK Gas Markets: the Market Price of Risk and Applications to Multiple Interruptible Supply Contracts,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0608, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Cartea, Álvaro & Williams, Thomas, 2008. "UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 829-846, May.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
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