Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium

Contents:

Author Info

  • Benth, Fred Espen
  • Cartea, Álvaro
  • Kiesel, Rüdiger

Abstract

In this paper we provide a framework that explains how the market risk premium, defined as the difference between forward prices and spot forecasts, depends on the risk preferences of market players and the interaction between buyers and sellers. In commodities markets this premium is an important indicator of the behavior of buyers and sellers and their views on the market spanning between short-term and long-term horizons. We show that under certain assumptions it is possible to derive explicit solutions that link levels of risk aversion and market power with market prices of risk and the market risk premium. We apply our model to the German electricity market and show that the market risk premium exhibits a term structure which can be explained by the combination of two factors. Firstly, the levels of risk aversion of buyers and sellers, and secondly, how the market power of producers, relative to that of buyers, affects forward prices with different delivery periods.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-4RGTXD1-1/2/1ffdef01d1eb42ea18e27dc6dd0b82c7
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 2006-2021

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2006-2021

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: G13 G11 D81 Q40 Contango Backwardation Market price of risk Electricity forwards Market risk premium Forward risk premium Forward bias Market power;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Gustavo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0507, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  2. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
  3. Alvaro Cartea & Thomas Williams, 2006. "UK Gas Markets: the Market Price of Risk and Applications to Multiple Interruptible Supply Contracts," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0608, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  4. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2006-2021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.