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Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments

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  • Abadie, Luis M.
  • Chamorro, José M.

Abstract

In this evaluation of energy assets related to natural gas, our particular focus is on a base load natural gas combined cycle power plant and a liquefied natural gas facility in a realistic setting. We also value several American-type investment options following the least squares Monte Carlo approach. We calibrate mean-reverting stochastic processes for gas and electricity prices by using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts and the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Additional sources of uncertainty concern the initial investment outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 10-22

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Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:10-22

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170

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Keywords: Real options Power plants Stochastic revenues and costs CO2 allowances LNG;

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References

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  1. Diko Pavel & Lawford Steve & Limpens Valerie, 2006. "Risk Premia in Electricity Forward Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
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  3. Kjarstad, Jan & Johnsson, F., 2007. "Prospects of the European gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 869-888, February.
  4. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
  5. Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
  6. Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004. "Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments," Others 0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
  7. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
  8. Alvaro Cartea & Thomas Williams, 2006. "UK Gas Markets: the Market Price of Risk and Applications to Multiple Interruptible Supply Contracts," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0608, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  9. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
  10. Margaret Insley, 2003. "On the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 860-883, November.
  11. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
  12. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
  13. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "Implementing a stochastic model for oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-238, May.
  14. Dagobert L. Brito & Peter R. Hartley, 2007. "Expectations and the Evolving World Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
  15. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2992-3015, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," CORE Discussion Papers 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Arvesen, Øystein & Medbø, Vegard & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Tomasgard, Asgeir & Westgaard, Sjur, 2012. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," MPRA Paper 43270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst.
  4. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
  5. Sönmez, Erkut & Kekre, Sunder & Scheller-Wolf, Alan & Secomandi, Nicola, 2013. "Strategic analysis of technology and capacity investments in the liquefied natural gas industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 100-114.
  6. Luis M. Abadie, 2009. "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 738-768, September.
  7. Park, Sun-Young & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2013. "The economic value of LNG in the Korean manufacturing industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 403-407.
  8. Charles F. Mason & Neil Wilmot, 2014. "Jump Processes in Natural Gas Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4604, CESifo Group Munich.

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