Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments
AbstractThe value of a gas fired power depends on the spark spread, defined as the difference between the price of electricity and the cost of gas used for the generation of electricity. We model the spark spread using a two-factor model, allowing mean-reversion in short-term variations and uncertainty in the equilibrium price to which prices revert. We analyze two types of gas plants: peak and base load plants. A peak load plant generates electricity when spark spread exceeds emission costs, whereas a base load plant generates electricity at all levels of spark spread. A base load plant can be upgraded to a peak load plant. First, we find the upgrading threshold for a base load plant. The upgrading threshold gives the optimal type of gas plant as a function of spark spread. Second, we calculate building threshold for the investment costs. When the investment costs are below the threshold it is optimal to build the plant. In the numerical example, we illustrate how our model can be used when investments in gas fired power plants are considered.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3-4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170
Other versions of this item:
- Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004. "Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments," Others 0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Denny Ellerman, 1998. "Note on The Seemingly Indefinite Extension of Power Plant Lives, A Panel Contribution," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
- He, Hua & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992.
"Investments in flexible production capacity,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 575-599.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
- David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010.
"Investment in New Power Generation under Uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs Condensing Plants in a Copula-Based Analysis,"
FCN Working Papers
12/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
- Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
- Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
- Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.
- Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2004.
"Optimal Technology Choice and Investment Timing: A Stochastic Model of Industrial Cogeneration vs. Heat-Only Production,"
CEPE Working paper series
04-37, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Wickart, Marcel & Madlener, Reinhard, 2007. "Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 934-952, July.
- Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel, 2008.
"Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto,"
2008-33, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
- Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5304-5316, December.
- Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009.
"Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments,"
Review of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
- GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," CORE Discussion Papers 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Moretto, Michele & Panteghini, Paolo M. & Scarpa, Carlo, 2008.
"Profit sharing and investment by regulated utilities: A welfare analysis,"
Review of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 315-337, December.
- Michele Moretto & Paolo M. Panteghini & Carlo Scarpa, 2007. "Profit Sharing and Investment by Regulated Utilities: a Welfare Analysis," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0059, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Michele Moretto & Paolo M. Panteghini & Carlo Scarpa, 2006. "Profit Sharing and Investment by Regulated Utilities: A Welfare Analysis," Working Papers ubs0611, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst, December.
- Gürkan Kumbaroglu & Reinhard Madlener & Mustafa Demirel, 2004.
"A Real Options Evaluation Model for the Diffusion Prospects of New Renewable Power Generation Technologies,"
CEPE Working paper series
04-35, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
- Luis M. Abadie, 2009. "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 738-768, September.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2003.
"Gas fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and abandonment,"
217, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
- Stein-Erik Fleten & Erkka Näsäkkälä, 2004. "Gas Fired Power Plants: Investment Timing, Operating Flexibility and Abandonment," Finance 0404010, EconWPA.
- Naito, Yuta & Takashima, Ryuta & Kimura, Hiroshi & Madarame, Haruki, 2010. "Evaluating replacement project of nuclear power plants under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1321-1329, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.