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Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments

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  • Nasakkala, Erkka
  • Fleten, Stein-Erik

Abstract

The value of a gas fired power depends on the spark spread, defined as the difference between the price of electricity and the cost of gas used for the generation of electricity. We model the spark spread using a two-factor model, allowing mean-reversion in short-term variations and uncertainty in the equilibrium price to which prices revert. We analyze two types of gas plants: peak and base load plants. A peak load plant generates electricity when spark spread exceeds emission costs, whereas a base load plant generates electricity at all levels of spark spread. A base load plant can be upgraded to a peak load plant. First, we find the upgrading threshold for a base load plant. The upgrading threshold gives the optimal type of gas plant as a function of spark spread. Second, we calculate building threshold for the investment costs. When the investment costs are below the threshold it is optimal to build the plant. In the numerical example, we illustrate how our model can be used when investments in gas fired power plants are considered.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3-4 ()
Pages: 371-393

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Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:14:y:2005:i:3-4:p:371-393

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170

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References

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  1. Denny Ellerman, 1998. "Note on The Seemingly Indefinite Extension of Power Plant Lives, A Panel Contribution," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  2. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
  3. He, Hua. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1989. "Investments in flexible production capacity," Working papers 2102-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
  5. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
  6. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
  2. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5304-5316, December.
  3. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," CORE Discussion Papers 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/8200, Université Paris-Dauphine.
  5. Moretto, Michele & Panteghini, Paolo M. & Scarpa, Carlo, 2008. "Profit sharing and investment by regulated utilities: A welfare analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 315-337, December.
  6. Naito, Yuta & Takashima, Ryuta & Kimura, Hiroshi & Madarame, Haruki, 2010. "Evaluating replacement project of nuclear power plants under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1321-1329, March.
  7. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
  8. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
  9. Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2004. "Optimal Technology Choice and Investment Timing: A Stochastic Model of Industrial Cogeneration vs. Heat-Only Production," CEPE Working paper series 04-37, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  10. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2003. "Gas fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and abandonment," MPRA Paper 217, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
  11. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
  12. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
  13. Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.

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