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Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty

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  • Arvesen, Øystein
  • Medbø, Vegard
  • Fleten, Stein-Erik
  • Tomasgard, Asgeir
  • Westgaard, Sjur

Abstract

Natural gas flows in pipelines as a consequence of the pressure difference at the inlet and outlet. Adjusting these pressures makes it possible to inject natural gas at one rate and withdraw at a different rate, hence using the pipeline as storage as well as transport. We study the value of using the so called pipeline linepack as a short-term gas storage and how this functionality may offset the discrepancy between the low flexibility in take-or-pay contracts and the high inherent flexibility of a gas fired power plant. To value the storage option, we consider a cycling power plant facing volatile power prices while purchasing gas on a take-or-pay contract. We estimate a Markov regime-switching model for power prices and a mean reverting jump diffusion model for gas prices. Applying Least Squares Monte Carlo simulation to the operation of the power plant, we find that the storage option indeed has significant value for the plant, enabling it to better exploit the sometimes extreme price fluctuations. Finally, we show how power price volatility and jump frequency are the main value drivers, and that the size of the storage increases the value up to a point where no additional flexibility is used.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43270.

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Date of creation: 07 Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43270

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Related research

Keywords: Linepack; Gas storage valuation; Regime-switching models; Natural gas prices; Electricity prices; Power plant;

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  1. De Jong Cyriel, 2006. "The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
  2. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
  3. Bjerksund, Petter & Stensland, Gunnar & Vagstad, Frank, 2008. "Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods," Discussion Papers 2008/20, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  4. Keyaerts, Nico & Hallack, Michelle & Glachant, Jean-Michel & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Gas market distorting effects of imbalanced gas balancing rules: Inefficient regulation of pipeline flexibility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 865-876, February.
  5. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  6. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
  7. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  8. Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "On the Pricing of Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 393-408, October.
  9. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Maribu, Karl Magnus & Wangensteen, Ivar, 2005. "Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
  10. Schneider, Stefan & Schneider, Stefan, 2010. "Power Spot Price Models with negative Prices," MPRA Paper 29958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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