Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods

Contents:

Author Info

  • Malcolm P. Baker
  • E. Scott Mayfield
  • John E. Parsons
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper provides an introduction to alternative models of uncertain commodity prices. A model of commodity price movements is the engine around which any valuation methodology for commodity production projects is built, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) models or the recently developed modern asset pricing (MAP) methods. The accuracy of the valuation is in part dependent on the quality of the engine employed. This paper provides an overview of several basic commodity price models and explains the essential differences among them. We also show how futures prices can be used to discriminate among the models and to estimate better key parameters of the model chosen.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=1268
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

    Volume (Year): Volume19 (1998)
    Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
    Pages: 115-148

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1998v19-01-a05

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 28790 Chagrin Blvd Ste 350, Cleveland, OH 44122, USA
    Phone: 216-464-5365
    Fax: 216-464-2737
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.iaee.org
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Moghimi Ghadikolaei, Hadi & Ahmadi, Abdollah & Aghaei, Jamshid & Najafi, Meysam, 2012. "Risk constrained self-scheduling of hydro/wind units for short term electricity markets considering intermittency and uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4734-4743.
    2. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1850-1881, July.
    3. Chen, Shan & Insley, Margaret, 2012. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 201-219.
    4. Mark W. French, 2005. "Why and when do spot prices of crude oil revert to futures price levels?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Marc Gronwald, 2011. "A Characterization of Oil Price Behavior - Evidence from Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3644, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    8. Kaffel, Bilel & Abid, Fathi, 2009. "A methodology for the choice of the best fitting continuous-time stochastic models of crude oil price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 971-1000, August.
    9. Charles F. Mason & Neil Wilmot, 2014. "Jump Processes in Natural Gas Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4604, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2003. "Does the Black-Scholes formula work for electricity markets? A nonparametric approach," Working Papers in Economics 101, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    11. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Jumps in Oil Prices- Evidence and Implications," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 75, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. Ghoshray, Atanu & Johnson, Ben, 2010. "Trends in world energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1147-1156, September.
    13. Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel & Abadie, Luis M., 2006. "Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments," IKERLANAK 2006-25, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
    14. Sadeghi, Mehdi & Shavvalpour, Saeed, 2006. "Energy risk management and value at risk modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3367-3373, December.
    15. Nomikos, Nikos & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2012. "Modelling energy spot prices: Empirical evidence from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1153-1169.
    16. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1998v19-01-a05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.