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Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis

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  • Guedes, José
  • Santos, Pedro

Abstract

To be useful to project managers, real option analysis (ROA) needs to capture the unique characteristics of individual projects and, at the same time, remain tractable and intuitive. That is a challenge since actual projects are often complex, featuring multiple sources of uncertainty as well as multiple investment and operating options. To meet the challenge, ROA has to take a clinical approach to project management and valuation, tailoring its framework to the specifics of each individual project to reflect its main sources of flexibility without becoming overly complex. This paper undertakes a ROA of an offshore oil development project of an integrated oil and gas company. The sequence and interconnections of available real options – exploration options, appraisal options, scaling options and abandonment options – as well as the calibration of the model's parameters, are developed in close collaboration with the Exploration and Production (E&P) division of the company, to assure realism and adherence to what management believes are the key sources of investment flexibility in a typical offshore project. The project assumes that there is joint uncertainty about reserve size and the price of oil. While the first source of uncertainty is resolved through exploration and appraisal activities the second is resolved through a diffusion model. The available real options add a substantial value to the project, with the option to abandon being the most valuable.

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  • Guedes, José & Santos, Pedro, 2016. "Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 377-386.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:377-386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.024
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jia-Yue Huang & Yun-Fei Cao & Hui-Ling Zhou & Hong Cao & Bao-Jun Tang & Nan Wang, 2018. "Optimal Investment Timing and Scale Choice of Overseas Oil Projects: A Real Option Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Fedorov, Semyon & Lavrutich, Maria & Hagspiel, Verena & Lerdahl, Thomas, 2022. "Risk and benefit sharing schemes in oil exploration and production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. da Silva, Vinícius Oliveira & Relva, Stefania Gomes & Mondragon, Marcella & Mendes, André Bergsten & Nishimoto, Kazuo & Peyerl, Drielli, 2023. "Building Options for the Brazilian Pre-salt: A technical-economic and infrastructure analysis of offshore integration between energy generation and natural gas exploration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Hernandez-Perdomo, Elvis A. & Mun, Johnathan & Rocco S., Claudio M., 2017. "Active management in state-owned energy companies: Integrating a real options approach into multicriteria analysis to make companies sustainable," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 487-502.
    6. Liu, Jiangfeng & Zhang, Qi & Li, Hailong & Chen, Siyuan & Teng, Fei, 2022. "Investment decision on carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies—A real option model based on technology learning effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    7. Gorupec Natalia & Tiberius Victor & Brehmer Nataliia & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.
    8. Bård Misund, 2016. "Vertical integration and value-relevance: Empirical evidence from oil and gas producers," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1264107-126, December.
    9. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Zhu, Lijing & Li, Yan, 2018. "Investment strategy for underground gas storage facilities based on real option model considering gas market reform in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 132-142.
    10. Liu, Haomin & Zhang, Zaixu & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Shale gas investment decision-making: Green and efficient development under market, technology and environment uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    11. Luis Mª Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2017. "Valuation of Real Options in Crude Oil Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    12. Eichhorn Colombo, Konrad W., 2023. "Financial resilience analysis of floating production, storage and offloading plant operated in Norwegian Arctic region: Case study using inter-/transdisciplinary system dynamics modeling and simulatio," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    13. Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Sheng-Hung Chen & Wei-Hung Chen, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Prices and Storage on Rig Counts: Evidence from the US Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-25, August.
    14. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2019. "Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 323-335, November.
    15. Lei Zhu & Xing Yao & Xian Zhang, 2020. "Evaluation of cooperative mitigation: captured carbon dioxide for enhanced oil recovery," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 1261-1285, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real option analysis; Valuing project flexibility; Reserve size uncertainty; price uncertainty; upstream petroleum industry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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