IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v32y2019i3d10.1007_s13563-019-00188-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk

Author

Listed:
  • Babak Jafarizadeh

    (Heriot-Watt University)

  • Reidar B. Bratvold

    (University of Stavanger)

Abstract

When investing in projects with uncertain outcomes, most companies use a discount rate that reflects their perception of risk and reward. This rate is used in decision tree models that once again represent opportunities and risks, usually with little attention to what was already included in the discount rates. Besides, capital asset pricing models lead to discount rates as “average measures” that do not often represent individual project’s risk. Such inconsistent treatments of risk could distort valuation and ultimately destroy shareholder value. In this paper, we use twelve years of monthly return data for major upstream petroleum companies in the U.S. market, and suggest an industry-wide beta, stripped of the blurring effects of corporate debt and embedded real options. In addition, for each project we separately account for systematic and project-specific risks. This provides a more consistent guideline for valuation of exploration and development projects, particularly in the petroleum and mineral industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2019. "Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 323-335, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:32:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-019-00188-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00188-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-019-00188-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-019-00188-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    2. Antonio E. Bernardo & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Amit Goyal, 2012. "Assessing Project Risk," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 24(3), pages 94-100, September.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    5. John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
    6. Luiz E. Brandão & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2005. "Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 69-88, June.
    7. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
    8. Luiz Brandão & James Dyer, 2005. "Decision Analysis and Real Options: A Discrete Time Approach to Real Option Valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 21-39, March.
    9. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar Brumer Bratvold, 2015. "Oil and Gas Exploration Valuation and the Value of Waiting," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(4), pages 245-262, October.
    10. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    11. Paul D. Kaplan & James D. Peterson, 1998. "Full-Information Industry Betas," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
    12. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1999. "Options in the Real World: Lessons Learned in Evaluating Oil and Gas Investments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    14. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
    15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    16. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    17. Guedes, José & Santos, Pedro, 2016. "Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 377-386.
    18. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    19. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "The CAPM Is Wanted, Dead or Alive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1947-1958, December.
    20. Kothari, S P & Shanken, Jay & Sloan, Richard G, 1995. "Another Look at the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 185-224, March.
    21. Graham A. Davis and Diderik Lund, 2018. "Taxation and Investment Decisions in Petroleum," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    22. David Laughton & Raul Guerrero & Donald Lessard, 2008. "Real Asset Valuation: A Back‐to‐basics Approach," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 20(2), pages 46-65, March.
    23. Antonio E. Bernardo & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Amit Goyal, 2007. "Growth Options, Beta, and the Cost of Capital," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 1-13, July.
    24. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    25. Thomas Arnold & Richard L. Shockley, 2002. "Real Options, Corporate Finance, And The Foundations Of Value Maximization," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(2), pages 82-88, December.
    26. Diderik Lund, 2014. "How Taxes on Firms Reduce the Risk of After-Tax Cash Flows," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(4), pages 567-598, December.
    27. Haim Levy, 2010. "The CAPM is Alive and Well: A Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 43-71, January.
    28. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
    29. James E. Smith, 2005. "Alternative Approaches for Solving Real-Options Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 89-102, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maryke C. Rademeyer, 2021. "Investigating the outcome for South African coal supply to the domestic market when faced with declining demand for exported coal," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(3), pages 441-453, October.
    2. Babak Jafarizadeh, 2022. "Forecasts of Prices and Informed Sensitivity Analysis: Applications in Project Valuations," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 205-219, September.
    3. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2021. "Project Valuation: Price Forecasts Bound to Discount Rates," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 139-152, June.
    4. Aldin Ardian & Mustafa Kumral, 2021. "Enhancing mine risk assessment through more accurate reproduction of correlations and interactions between uncertain variables," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(3), pages 411-425, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
    2. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    3. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Zakaria, Muhammad & Raza, Naveed, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of CAPM Estimates: Data Frequency and Time Frame," MPRA Paper 60110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Girma, Sourafel & Shah, M. Eskandar & Williams, Jonathan, 2014. "Rationalizing the value premium in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 51-70.
    6. M. Eskandar Shah & Sourafel Girm & R. Hudson, 2012. "Rationalizing the Value Premium under Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market," Working Papers 12010, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    7. Misund, Bard & Mohn, Klaus, 2014. "Exploration Risk in Oil & Gas Shareholder Returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/4, University of Stavanger.
    8. Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando, 2010. "Pemilihan Model Asset Pricing [Asset pricing model selection: Indonesian Stock Exchange]," MPRA Paper 36978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    10. Martin Wallmeier, 2000. "Determinanten erwarteter Renditen am deutschen Aktienmarkt — Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand ausgewählter Kennzahlen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 27-57, February.
    11. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Saniya Khalid & Saba Ameer, 2016. "CAPM estimates: Can data frequency and time period lend a hand?," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-12, June.
    12. Jennifer Conrad & Michael Cooper & Gautam Kaul, 2003. "Value versus Glamour," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1969-1996, October.
    13. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    14. Urbański, Stanisław & Zarzecki, Dariusz, 2022. "The Fama-French model for estimating the cost of equity capital: The impact of real options of investment projects," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    15. Urbański Stanisław & Leśkow Jacek, 2020. "Using the ICAPM to estimate the cost of capital of stock portfolios: empirical evidence on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 73-94, March.
    16. Stanisław Urbański & Jacek Leśkow, 2020. "Using the ICAPM to estimate the cost of capital of stock portfolios: empirical evidence on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 73-94, March.
    17. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    18. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ayung Tseng, 2022. "Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 607-646, June.
    19. Karagiannidis, Iordanis & Vozlyublennaia, Nadia, 2016. "Limits to mutual funds' ability to rely on mean/variance optimization," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 282-292.
    20. Don U.A. Galagedera, 2004. "A survey on risk-return analysis," Finance 0406010, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:32:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-019-00188-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.