Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis
AbstractIn the academic literature and professional practice, there are a number of alternative and apparently competing methods for valuing risky projects. In this paper, we compare and contrast three different approaches: risk-adjusted discount-rate analysis, option pricing analysis, and decision analysis, focusing on the last two. We show that, in contrast to some of the claims made in the "real options" literature, when both option pricing and decision analysis methods are correctly applied, they must give consistent results. We also explore ways in which option pricing and decision analysis methods can be profitably integrated. In particular, we show how option pricing techniques can be used to simplify decision analysis when some risks can be hedged by trading and, conversely, how decision analysis techniques can be used to extend option pricing techniques to problems with incomplete securities markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 41 (1995)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
valuation; option pricing theory; decision analysis;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007.
"Project valuation and investment decisions: CAPM versus arbitrage,"
14525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlo Alberto Magni, 2007. "Project valuation and investment decisions: CAPM versus arbitrage," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 137-140.
- Singh, Sachin & McAllister, Charles D. & Rinks, Dan & Jiang, Xiaoyue, 2010. "Implication of risk adjusted discount rates on cycle stock and safety stock in a multi-period inventory model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 187-195, January.
- Jafarizadeh, Babak, 2012. "Information acquisition as an American option," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 807-816.
- Zdenìk Zmeškal, 2008. "Application of the American Real Flexible Switch Options Methodology A Generalized Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(05-06), pages 261-275, August.
- Hilli, Petri & Kallio, Maarit & Kallio, Markku, 2007. "Real option analysis of a technology portfolio," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 127-147.
- Pedro Godhino & J.P. Costa, 2000. "The Use Of Time And Financial Value In Project Decision Trees - A Specific Model And An Algorithm For Rolling Back The Trees," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 54, Society for Computational Economics.
- Crocker, Thomas D. & Shogren, Jason F. & Turner, Paul R., 1998. "Incomplete beliefs and nonmarket valuation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-162, June.
- Andrea Gavosto & Guido Ponte & Carla Scaglioni, 2007. "Investment in Next Generation Networks and the Role of Regulation: A Real Option Approach," Working Papers 2007/31, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
- Mahdi Mattar & Charles Cheah, 2006. "Valuing large engineering projects under uncertainty: private risk effects and real options," Construction Management & Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 847-860.
- Magni, Carlo Alberto & Vélez-Pareja, Ignacio, 2009.
"Potential dividends versus actual cash flows in firm valuation,"
14509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlo Alberto Magni & Ignacio Velez-Pareja, 2009. "Potential dividends versus actual cash flows in firm valuation," PROYECCIONES FINANCIERAS Y VALORACION 005516, MASTER CONSULTORES.
- Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2002. "Investment decisions in the theory of finance: Some antinomies and inconsistencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 206-217, February.
- George, Gerard & Prabhu, Ganesh N., 2003. "Developmental financial institutions as technology policy instruments: implications for innovation and entrepreneurship in emerging economies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 89-108, January.
- Miller, Luke T., 2010. "PMA license valuation: A Bayesian learning real options approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 28-37, January.
- Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
- Choi, Hyun-Woo & Kim, In Joon & Kim, Tong Suk, 2002. "Contingent claims valuation of optional calling plan contracts in telephone industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 433-448.
- Sachon, Marc & Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth, 2002. "Managing technology development for safety-critical systems," IESE Research Papers D/465, IESE Business School.
- Samuel Mongrut Montalván & Didac Ramírez Sarrió, 2005. "Discount Rates in Emerging Capital Markets," Finance 0501013, EconWPA.
- Lint, O., 2000. "Retrospective insights from real options in R&D," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 00.09, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS).
- Vélez-Pareja, Ignacio & Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2008. "Potential dividends and actual cash flows. Theoretical and empirical reasons for using ‘actual’ and dismissing ‘potential’, Or: How not to pull potential rabbits out of actual hats," MPRA Paper 7266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Abdel Sabour, S. A., 2001. "Dynamics of threshold prices for optimal switches: the case of mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 209-214, September.
- Robert Nau, 2001. "De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 89-124, December.
- Alexander, David Richard & Mo, Mengjia & Stent, Alan Fraser, 2012. "Arithmetic Brownian motion and real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 114-122.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.