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The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Robert S. Pindyck
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In this paper I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: Mat does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price evolution, and how it should be modelled? Can models of reversion to stochastically fluctuating trend lines help us forecast prices over horizons of 20 years or more? And what do the answers to these questions tell us about investment decisions that are dependent on prices and their stochastic evolution?
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Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal .
Volume (Year): 20 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1-28
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F0 - International Economics - - General
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis ,"
Econometrica ,
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Other versions: Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995.
" Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable ,"
Journal of Finance ,
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Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & Wang, Jiang, 1959-, 1993.
"Implementing option pricing models when asset returns are predictable ,"
Working papers
3593-93., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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NBER Working Papers
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Robert S. Pindyck, 1994.
"Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices ,"
NBER Working Papers
3295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices ,"
Working papers
3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
[Downloadable!] Robert S. Pindyck, 1994.
"Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices ,"
RAND Journal of Economics ,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Pindyck, Robert S, 1978.
"The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-61, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pindyck, Robert S, 1980.
"Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-25, December.
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James MacKinnon, 1990.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests ,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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Cochrane, John H, 1988.
"How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP? ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
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Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998.
"Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods ,"
The Energy Journal ,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 115-148.
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Matteo Manera & Chiara Longo & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2007.
"Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting ,"
Working Papers
2007.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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Mark W. French, 2005.
"Why and when do spot prices of crude oil revert to futures price levels? ,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004.
"Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices ,"
Working Papers
04-5, Bank of Canada.
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Vedenov, Dmitry & Duffield, James & Wetzstein, Michael, 2005.
"Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market ,"
2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI
19182, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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Murray Carlson & Zeigham Khokher & Sheridan Titman, 2006.
"Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics ,"
NBER Working Papers
12000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions: Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006.
"Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion ,"
Working Papers
06-14, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008.
"Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield ,"
Cahiers de recherche
0801, GREEN.
[Downloadable!]
James L. Smith, 2003.
"Petroleum Property Valuation ,"
Working Papers
0311, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
[Downloadable!]
Rafal Weron, 2005.
"Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options ,"
Econometrics
0502003, EconWPA.
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Geman, Hélyette & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2003.
"A Class of Marked Point Processes for Modelling Electricity Prices ,"
ESSEC Working Papers
DR 03004, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
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Zhang, Zibin & Vedenov, Dmitry & Wetzstein, Michael, 2007.
"Can the U.S. Ethanol Industry Compete in the Alternative Fuels' Market? ,"
2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama
34867, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
[Downloadable!]
Álvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002.
"Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence ,"
Economics Working Papers
we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
[Downloadable!]
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