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The Clean-Development Mechanism, stochastic permit prices and energy investments

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  • Hieronymi, Philipp
  • Schüller, David

Abstract

We analyze the impact on energy investments stemming from different emission permit classes, by considering permits that are allocated inside the European Emission Trading Scheme and secondary Certified Emission Reduction (sCER) permits originating from the Clean Development Mechanism. One price taking firm which is subject to emission regulation has the choice to invest in gas or wind power plant. The firm faces uncertainty regarding stochastically evolving permit prices, while it receives a premium on the electricity price for wind energy. As a first step, we determine the value of the option to invest into a gas power plant over time. Then, we calculate the investment probability of a gas power investment in a range of policy scenarios. We find that allowing the usage of sCER permits in the present policy framework has a positive impact on gas power investment. Decoupling the price processes has a similar effect. If the quota of sCER permits is doubled, the decrease in the investment probability for wind power is large. We carry out sensitivity tests for different parameter values, and find that investment behavior changes significantly with differing interest rates, the wind energy premium and volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Hieronymi, Philipp & Schüller, David, 2015. "The Clean-Development Mechanism, stochastic permit prices and energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 25-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:25-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.10.008
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    Cited by:

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    4. Beat Hintermann & Marc Gronwald, 2019. "Linking with Uncertainty: The Relationship Between EU ETS Pollution Permits and Kyoto Offsets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 761-784, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy investment; Investment under uncertainty; Clean Development Mechanism; Emission markets; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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