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Spot Price Modeling and the Valuation of Electricity Forward Contracts: the Role of Demand and Capacity

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  • Alvaro Cartea

    (v of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Pablo Villaplana Conde

Abstract

We propose a model where wholesale electricity prices are explained by two state variables: demand and capacity. We derive analytical expressions to price forward contracts and to calculate the forward premium. We apply our model to the PJM, England and Wales, and Nord Pool markets. Our empirical findings indicate that volatility of demand is seasonal and that the market price of demand risk is also seasonal and positive, both of which exert an upward (seasonal) pressure on the price of forward contracts. We assume that both volatility of capacity and the market price of capacity risk are constant and find that, depending on the market and period under study, it could either exert an upward or downward pressure on forward prices. In all markets we find that the forward premium exhibits a seasonal pattern. During the months of high volatility of demand, forward contracts trade at a premium. During months of low volatility of demand, forwards can either trade at a relatively small premium or, even in some cases, at a discount, i.e. they exhibit a negative forward premium.

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File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0718.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 0718.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0718

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Keywords: power prices; demand; capacity; forward premium; forward bias; market price of capacity risk; market price of demand risk; PJM; England and Wales; Nord Pool;

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  1. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2009. "Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 103-122.
  2. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
  3. H�lyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May.
  4. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
  5. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
  6. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo_Gustavo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Finance 0501011, EconWPA, revised 10 Sep 2005.
  7. Geman, Hélyette & Roncoroni, Andréa, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1433, Paris Dauphine University.
  8. M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298.
  9. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
  10. Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
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Cited by:
  1. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2711-2721, May.
  2. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
  3. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Derivatives Pricing with Forward-Looking Information," Working Papers on Finance 1317, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  4. Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach," Papers 1205.2299, arXiv.org.
  5. Huisman, Ronald & Kilic, Mehtap, 2012. "Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 892-898.
  6. René Aid & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené, 2010. "A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives," Working Papers hal-00525800, HAL.
  7. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
  8. Furió, Dolores, 2011. "A Survey on the Spanish Electricity Intraday Market/El mercado de electricidad español: el mercado intradiario," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 657 (20 pag, Agosto.
  9. Nomikos, Nikos & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2012. "Modelling energy spot prices: Empirical evidence from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1153-1169.
  10. Elliott, Robert J. & Lyle, Matthew R. & Miao, Hong, 2010. "A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 838-847, July.
  11. Furió, Dolores & Meneu, Vicente, 2010. "Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 784-793, February.
  12. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
  13. Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "The Valuation of Clean Spread Options: Linking Electricity, Emissions and Fuels," Papers 1205.2302, arXiv.org.
  14. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Spot and Derivatives Pricing when Markets are Interconnected," Working Papers on Finance 1323, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  15. Giuseppe Benedetti & Luciano Campi, 2013. "Utility indifference valuation for non-smooth payoffs with an application to power derivatives," Papers 1307.4591, arXiv.org.
  16. Capitán Herráiz, Álvaro & Rodríguez Monroy, Carlos, 2009. "Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3566-3579, September.
  17. Lyle, Matthew R. & Elliott, Robert J., 2009. "A 'simple' hybrid model for power derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 757-767, September.
  18. Michal Michalovský & Igor Paholok, 2011. "Portfolio Theory and Electricity Forward Markets," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(1), pages 76-103.

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