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Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market

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  • Furió, Dolores
  • Meneu, Vicente
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    Abstract

    Deregulation in energy markets has entailed important changes in the way agents conduct business. Price risk arises as a result of fluctuations in the future price of electricity and agents assume long or short positions in the forward and spot markets to hedge their exposure to price risk. The presence of forward risk premium in prices is evidence of the fact that agents act in the market according to risk considerations. This work aims to analyse the information content of the difference between the forward and spot prices (the so-called forward premium) regarding the agents' decisions. We find that the sign and magnitude of the ex post forward premium depend on the unexpected variation in demand and on the unexpected variation in the hydroelectric capacity, and that both the ex post and the ex ante forward premia are negatively related to the variance of spot price, as Bessembinder and Lemmon (2002) predict. We provide additional insights about relevant aspects of spot price pricing in the Spanish electricity market such as the positive relation between spot prices and CO2 emission allowance prices or the impact on spot prices of the set of market matching rules introduced in March 2006.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 784-793

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:2:p:784-793

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Deregulation Agents' behavior Forward premium;

    References

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    1. Bessembinder, H., 1989. "Forward Contracts And Firm Value: Investment Incentive And Contracting Effects," Papers 89-06, Rochester, Business - Managerial Economics Research Center.
    2. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    3. Allaz Blaise & Vila Jean-Luc, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Kühn, Kai-Uwe & Machado, Matilde Pinto, 2004. "Bilateral Market Power and Vertical Integration in the Spanish Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Allaz, Blaise, 1992. "Oligopoly, uncertainty and strategic forward transactions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 297-308, June.
    6. Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
    7. Fabra, Natalia & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Price wars and collusion in the Spanish electricity market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 155-181, April.
    8. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
    9. Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
    10. Cartea, Álvaro & Villaplana, Pablo, 2008. "Spot price modeling and the valuation of electricity forward contracts: The role of demand and capacity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2502-2519, December.
    11. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    12. Stulz, ReneM., 1990. "Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-27, July.
    13. Pirrong, Craig & Jermakyan, Martin, 2008. "The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2520-2529, December.
    14. Frank Wolak, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 1-39.
    15. Von Der Fehr, N.H.M. & Harbord, D., 1992. "Long-Tern Contracts and Imperfectly Competitive Spot Markets : A Study of U.K. Electricity Industry," Memorandum 14/1992, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Bråthen, Espen & Nissen-Meyer, Sigurd-Erik, 2010. "Evaluation of static hedging strategies for hydropower producers in the Nordic market," MPRA Paper 27133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mehtap Kilic & Ronald Huisman, 2010. "Is Power Production Flexibility a Substitute for Storability? Evidence from Electricity Futures Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-070/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.

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