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The strategic motive to sell forward: experimental evidence

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Author Info
José Luis Ferreira
Praveen Kujal
Stephen Rassenti

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Abstract

We test the strategic motive to sell forward in experimental Cournot duopoly and quadropoly environments with either a finite (exogenous close) or an infinite (endogenous close) number of forward markets. In the exogenous close case experienced subjects do not avail themselves of the forward markets and production mostly occurs in the spot market phase. In a forward market duopoly experienced subjects achieve nearly the monopoly output level. For the quadropoly output levels are more competitive and are near the Cournot Nash equilibrium. In both cases output produced is much less than the Allaz-Vila (1993) prediction. The results with inexperienced subjects, however, are in line with theory and as reported in Le-Coq and Orzen (2006). We implement the case of infinitely many forward periods using the endogenous close rule. In this case the results both for a forward market duopoly and quadropoly are much more competitive both with inexperienced and experienced subjects. Unlike the exogenous stopping rule, under the endogenous rule subjects sell forward in the forward markets and find it hard to coordinate their actions.

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we092616.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we092616

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  1. Allaz Blaise & Vila Jean-Luc, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-16, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2008. "Competition with forward contracts: a laboratory analysis motivated by electricity market design," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 192-214, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rassenti, Stephen J & Reynolds, Stanley S & Smith, Vernon L, 1994. "Cotenancy and Competition in an Experimental Auction Market for Natural Gas Pipeline Networks," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 41-65, January.
  4. Ferreira, Jose Luis, 2003. "Strategic interaction between futures and spot markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 141-151, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mahenc, P. & Salanie, F., 2004. "Softening competition through forward trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 282-293, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Huck, Steffen & Normann, Hans-Theo & Oechssler, Jorg, 2004. "Two are few and four are many: number effects in experimental oligopolies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 435-446, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alexander Dilger, 2006. "The absent-minded prisoner," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 301-315, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hughes, John S. & Kao, Jennifer L., 1997. "Strategic forward contracting and observability," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-133, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2005. "Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly," Working Papers 0506, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Allaz, Blaise, 1992. "Oligopoly, uncertainty and strategic forward transactions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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